Ricky Roundtable: Sixers Vs. Celtics Predictions
Bleedo Green, baby.
Adam Aaronson, whose legal name is Sixers Adam (@SixersAdam on Twitter), covers the Sixers for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez. He has been legally banned from covering the team in person, and when that ban was set to be lifted, Covid-19 struck. He believes cantaloupe is the best food in existence, and is brought to you by the Official Realtor of The Process, Adam Ksebe.
Question #1: In our last roundtable, we discussed who the fifth starter should be with Ben Simmons sidelined. Now that we know their playoff opponent will be a wing-heavy Boston team, would you pull the plug on Horford’s reentry into the starting lineup, and if so, for who?
Sixers Adam: While I think Matisse Thybulle very well may be the team’s best option when it comes to stopping Boston’s blossoming wing superstar Jayson Tatum, I also think there is a chance that all of his weaknesses are exploited by a Celtics team that we have seen firsthand is able to find the skeletons in every player’s closet. If they start out with Thybulle in there, it goes poorly and then Horford has to be reinserted again, it would be suboptimal for a team already playing catch-up. Give Horford the first crack at his old team, but be ready to bring in Thybulle later in the series if necessary.
Spike Eskin: I would not. Still think Horford is the best player and it doesn’t really help that none of the wings on the bench are that good. Thybulle is the easy defense answer here but they’ll switch him onto Kemba and he’ll be in foul trouble immediately. I’m going with big Al.
Michael Levin: I wouldn't. I generally think starting/not-starting is less important than we give it credit for (Ivica Zubac starts over Montrezl Harrell), but I do think it matters for the mindset of the players. The confidence and stability of this team is always one thread-pull away from unraveling into a pile of fabric, so having Horford -- far past his athletic prime, but still a walking competent -- in there will give everyone a similar feeling I get when I make sure my girlfriend or writing partner is around when I have to make an aggravating call to a healthcare provider: at least someone's an adult here.
Andrew Unterberger: Fuck it, I'm sticking with Horf. If we can't get any kinda Big Al Haunting His Old Team mojo out of this series we're probably done for anyway. Let's see if he can work some of that veteran magic on the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, at least in short stretches and with some built-in switching -- and if it just doesn't work, we can yank him for Matisse before we "return home" for games three and four.
Mike O’Connor: I would start Horford to begin the series, simply because I trust him not to make a ton of unnecessary mistakes in the way that Thybulle is prone to. I’d put Horford on Tatum, and if Tatum absolutely cooks him, I’d audible to Thybulle.
Alonzo Jones: I wouldn’t pull the plug just yet. I’d give Horford enough of a chance to show and prove that he doesn’t belong before making any change. None of those defensive matchups benefit the Sixers, AT ALL, but if you’re prioritizing rim protection and okay with giving Tatum those 17-20 foot fade-aways he loves you may be able to live with Horford being there.
Question #2: Let’s play some fill in the blanks: The Sixer I am most worried about having a poor series is _____.
SA: Shake Milton. While his emergence since last February has been a joy, he is the lone ball-handler who we know will be in the playoff rotation and is going to have many of his minutes come up against the ferocious Marcus Smart, perhaps the single best guard defender in the NBA. Smart will hound Milton as he tries to initiate offense, but he will also stick to Milton away from the ball and prevent Shake from finding open spot-up threes. I hope I’m wrong, but I have a feeling Milton’s offensive value could be slim to none in this series.
SE: I’m most worried about Embiid, because he’s the only one who can get them past the Celtics. But he wouldn’t have a “poor” series. I think it’s possible Shake could have a poor series and that would kill them. So I’d say Shake.
ML: Joel. Not that he's most likely to, but he's the guy, he needs to put it on his shoulders and realize he's the guy, and he's gotta continue to pass well out of double teams knowing that, since he's the guy, the ball is coming right back to him on the next possession. If he starts forcing it, or lumbering around, or choking Marcus Smart because he's out of other ideas, we're in trouble. And that would bum me out.
AU: Have you considered what even five minutes of Shake Milton being guarded by Marcus Smart will look like? I have -- and if Shake (or Brett) has too, he's not getting much sleep at the Grand Floridian this weekend.
MOC: I would say Shake but somebody Else is obviously going to say him so I’ll go with Josh Richardson. The Sixers are expecting a lot from Richardson in this series — be the team’s best perimeter defender, make 3s and an acceptable rate to punish double teams on Embiid, and assume a bigger role as a creator with Simmons out. If Richardson really flounders, they’re screwed. Where do you even go on defense if he can’t fluster Walker or Tatum? The Sixers need big things from him and if he falls short, I could see him becoming a scapegoat.
AJ: Tobias Harris. Mostly because I’m at the point now that I don’t expect anything from Josh Richardson and I don’t expect him here next year so whatever positive he can be is a huge plus so I won’t even waste time mentioning him. However, Tobias having a slow start to this series probably sends the Sixers home in 4 games.
Question #3: And the Celtic I am most worried about having a great series is _____.
SA: It has to be Tatum. Not that Kemba Walker isn’t wonderful and capable of torching the Sixers, but as Walker’s availability waned during the season, Tatum’s star rose. He has blossomed into an elite scorer, and if Thybulle can’t defend him with a lot of success, Boston could have two lethal scorers lighting it up at once.
SE: Tatum. Smart will have a great series, not much we can do. Walker will have a great series, not much we can do. But if Tatum is great as well we are fucked.
ML: On the pod I said Kanter, because it'd be the most frustrating. Marcus Smart also will undoubtedly go off in a manner that will send me careening into my quarantine plants. But I'm most worried about Jaylen Brown. He's more athletic than anybody we can put on him, he can get to the rim in a way that I admire and also upsets me, and unlike Tatum, he's the man. I cannot hate Jaylen Brown. My only hope is that a Sixers win creates so much strife among these bleedos that Jaylen demands a trade where he doesn't have to watch Tatum do an intensely lame 2-out-of-10 Harden impression around the perimeter for much of the game. Jaylen would look great in Timberwolves blue.
AU: I mean, I'm certainly worried about the damage Marcus Smart will do to us at both ends, but the answer is Tatum. I don't fear Jaylen Brown as a true takeover guy, we have guys who can hang with Kemba (and small point guards tend to get nullified a bit by looser officiating and locked-in defenses in the playoffs anyway), but if Tatum's a superstar in this series, we don't really have any answer for that. By the time it gets so bad that we have to put Embiid on him, that probably means it's already over -- it'll open things up for everyone else, and the Celtics have the guys to take advantage.
MOC: Marcus Smart, duh. He’s going to steal the ball from Shake in the backcourt 4-5 times, shoot 112% from 3, and flop his way into some crucial offensive foul call on Embiid.
AJ: Marcus Smart (love him) going nuclear is going to annoy the hell out of me.
Question #4: If the Sixers win the series, it will be because ____.
SA: Joel Embiid throws Daniel Theis into the Atlantic Ocean, the Celtics experience uncharacteristically poor shooting, the Sixers experience uncharacteristically great shooting, and in turn get surprising production from bench players such as Furkan Korkmaz, Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III.
SE: Embiid will be amazing and Tobias Harris will average 24 a game.
ML: They just lived on the offensive glass. It needs to be like a 2-1 rebounding advantage at all times. Wouldn't hurt if the Sixers kept up their hot bubble shooting (sponsored by Big Red), but for my own mental health I will assume they will not. Pounding their asses in the paint, gobbling up rebounds, then camping at the foul line will be the only way.
AU: Joel Embiid plays like a superstar and Jayson Tatum doesn't. That alone won't even be enough to guarantee us a series win here, but it'd be enough to crack the door open.
MOC: Richardson looks like an All-League defender, Embiid handles double teams well, and the Sixers get some hot shooting from their bench.
AJ: Josh Richardson takes it personal on both sides of the ball and the Korkmaz/Thybulle/Burks/Scott/Neto collective has the best showing of their collective careers.
Question #5: And now, the moment we’ve all been waiting for. Who will win the series, and in how many games?
SA: I feel very confident about the result, and have been going back and forth on the games. It would not surprise me if I’m a game off in either direction, but I will say… Celtics in 5. I really do hope I’m wrong, because I would love to see as many games as possible between these two teams. *sad face*
SE: Every rational part of me says this series isn’t close, and the Celtics win it in about five games. But I believe that they will torture us. I believe that there’s no way I’m getting out of this with five evening pods and then back to the offseason. The Sixers are going to win the series in seven games. Don’t blame me for this.
ML: If this team has been confounding us for almost a calendar year, maybe they'll confound someone else for a change. Vengeance for Covington, Sixers in 5. Celtics win one on Brad Wanamaker's TJ McConnell game. Fuck you.
AU: Celtics in five, my head in the couch cushions.
MOC: Celtics in 6. The Sixers will have a respectable showing, I firmly believe that. Embiid is too damn good. But Boston is just a better team. The Sixers will look just good enough to protect the front office’s jobs and spark an offseason of discussions on whether or not the Sixers should trade Simmons.
AJ: This team refuses to put me out of my misery so naturally I have them winning in 6 games. Joel Embiid is the best player in this series and I still think there’s something to having that advantage. You may curse me out when the Celtics win in 5.