The Five Biggest Questions About the Sixers Heading Into the Playoffs
Will Buddy Hield prove a complete flop? Can we get The Tobias Harris Game? MOC answers some important Qs that remain for the 2023-24 Sixers before the postseason.
Joel Embiid is back, there are five games left in the regular season, and the Sixers are one of the league’s biggest wildcards heading into the playoffs. They were one of the league’s five best teams prior to Embiid getting hurt, and have fallen off a cliff due to their injuries since then.
With all the uncertainty swirling around this team, it’s hard to know what to make of them heading into the playoffs. Here in this piece, I will raise and answer the five biggest questions that will determine their level of playoff success. Let’s begin.
What kind of shape can Embiid get in?
We’ve only just begun to see how Joel Embiid looks upon his return from his knee surgery, but so far, he doesn’t look particularly hampered. He’s moving well, he’s not grabbing at his knee all the time, and he isn’t shying away from contact. The only question about Embiid is whether he can get himself into peak conditioning before the playoffs come around.
Personally, I would rate my concern level here as pretty minimal; three weeks is likely enough time to work himself into ideal shape. It certainly is better than his recent history –- in the past, we’ve seen Embiid have to return to the playoffs after weeks of absences with no ramp-up period. This time, he will at least have a handful of games to work himself back into shape.
If you look back at the way that Embiid starts every season, he often has to work himself into shape at first, and then starts to hit his stride around the two-three week mark. I get that coming right off an injury may be different, but it’s worth pointing out that this amount of time has been plenty for him to achieve peak conditioning levels in the past.
One could also look back at recent history to see examples of superstars having monster playoff runs after having missed time right before the playoffs. Stephen Curry missed the final three weeks of the 2022 regular season, and began that playoff run (which, of course, ended in a championship) by coming off the bench and playing 20 minutes per game. Chris Paul missed five weeks from mid-February to late March in 2022, and was excellent in the Suns’ first round series against the Pelicans that year. In 2017, Kevin Durant missed all of March and returned only for the last three regular season games, and went on to win Finals MVP.
So, there’s a solid history here of players being able to regain their conditioning with minimal issues. Barring some other injury emerging, I will go into these playoffs viewing Embiid as the second-healthiest he’s ever been for a playoff run, the first being the 2020 bubble playoffs.
Will the real Buddy Hield emerge?
It sucks to say it, but the first four games of Buddy Hield’s Sixers tenure were a complete mirage. To put it bluntly, he might just stink. This trade is starting to feel more and more like the George Hill deal; Hield may very well wind up being a fringe rotation piece if De’Anthony Melton is able to come back in time for the playoffs.
The simplest way to sum up Buddy’s game at this point in his career is that he is an excellent standstill 3-point shooter and nothing more. In games like last night’s against Miami, when Hield isn’t making those wide open shots, he becomes virtually unplayable. It has been astounding to me how little offense the Sixers have gotten out of running Hield around screens, and also, how little he is able to do off the dribble when asked to.
Hield looks somewhat diminished athletically; it looks hard for him just to get shot attempts off. His value in terms of being a “shot creator” is basically gone; his only real value is being a player who can reliably knock down open 3s at an elite rate. That skill may prove extremely useful as teams try to double team Embiid in the playoffs, but for now, the Hield trade feels like a massive dud.
Can Tobias add a “yeah, but…” to his legacy here?
It’s a safe assumption to say that Tobias Harris will be gone after this season, and that this is his final playoff run with the team. As such, his legacy here is pretty much written in stone –- he will go down as one of the most disappointing and infuriating players to ever put on a Sixers’ uniform.
Obviously, asking Tobias to re-write his own story with an epic playoff run is not a realistic request. But what I do wonder is if he can add a “yeah, but [insert positive point here]” with his 2024 playoff performance.
Something along the lines of: “Yeah, but he played pretty good defense on Brook Lopez and that allowed Embiid to guard Giannis in that Bucks series that they won.” Or: “Yeah, but he did hit five 3s in Game 6 against the Celtics to help them tie the series.”
I’m just looking for something – anything – to be able to put on Tobias’ résumé here. Five seasons in (yes, this will be his sixth playoff run with the team), there is not a single signature playoff game or even moment that he can hang his hat on with the Sixers; one could honestly make the case that not a single thing about Philly’s past six playoff runs would be different if he were simply glued to the bench. (AU ed. note: He did put up 29 and 16 and shot 6-6 from three in the Greg Monroe game against the Nets with Jason Lipshutz and I in the building in the first round in 2019.) They would have still lost in the same round, perhaps even in the same amount of games, every year as they did with him on the floor.
At some point in the future when we have the discussion about Tobias’ legacy here, the first 90 percent of it will undoubtedly be overwhelmingly negative. The only question is if Tobias can use his one last playoff run here to sprinkle in a teensy bit of positivity – a “yeah, but…” in a conversation that currently has none of them. Personally, I don’t see it happening; Tobias has looked mentally checked out for months now. But I would welcome the chance to be proven wrong.
Will Melton and Covington return?
The losses of Melton and Covington have been criminally underrated in terms of the role they’ve played in the Sixers’ decline throughout the second half of this season. I think it is vastly understated how drastic the difference would be in the Sixers’ overall identity would be with those two fully healthy and playing up to their standards.
This team is at its best when Embiid and Maxey are cooking on offense, and the Sixers are playing elite team defense on the other end. If there is any hope for the Sixers upsetting the Celtics, it is by having a highly aggressive and connected defense that successfully flummoxes the Celtics into the same mistakes that have led to their downfall in years past – poor decision-making, turnovers, bad shot selection, and a propensity to settle for isolation-based offense. The only way that becomes possible is if Melton and Covington return, Nick Nurse dials up the level of aggression, and the Sixers’ defense is able to out-think the Celtics’ offense on a possession-by-possession basis.
Of course, full health for Melton and Covington is a rarity these days -– I’m not putting much hope into the possibility of them both returning and being major contributors. But if they do, I can’t stress enough how much that transforms this team’s defensive identity. Melton and RoCo are two of the highest-IQ defensive players on the team, in addition to Lowry and Batum. A bench lineup with those four plus Embiid would be able to terrorize opposing offenses.
If nothing else, being able to replace the Buddy Hield/Cam Payne minutes with Melton and the K.J. Martin minutes with Covington would be an obvious IQ upgrade.
Is Kelly Oubre Jr.’s game likely to translate well to the playoffs?
You might view this as an obvious yes, but Oubre hasn’t played in a playoff series since 2018, when he was just 22 years old. He’s had an excellent year, and I’m inclined to think that his mentality, athleticism, and versatility will make him a very good playoff contributor, but it’s hard to fully trust it until you see it in a playoff context.
Especially given the Sixers’ current health situation, I struggle to see a scenario in which Oubre averages less than 30 minutes per game in a playoff series. They will rely upon him heavily to guard opposing wings, and to create offense when Embiid and Maxey are sitting or are being double teamed. For better or for worse, it’s hard to overstate just how much the Sixers will be relying on Oubre in the playoffs.
If his stellar performance against the Heat last night is any indication (which I think it is -– that game had a playoff-like intensity to it), Oubre will be more than capable of rising to the occasion. He is a type of player and personality that the team has not had in recent years, and the value of that should show even more so in a playoff context. So, personally, I’m bullish on his chances of meeting the moment.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health. Get 20% off E-Lyte, Gut+, and all Body Bio products with promo code FIRECJ at Body Bio’s website.