Buy Or Sell? Five Sixers Storylines From The Bubble

Thybulle’s awakening, Simmons’ shot, and three more key developments.

[art by @digrupert]

Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA.

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Is there anything better than meaningless exhibition basketball? Boy, was it refreshing to see the sort-of-new-look Sixers back in action this past week with some low-stakes but relatively fun games.

Lots of interesting things transpired, but being that it was only an exhibition, it’s often hard to tell whether these trends will continue once the games actually count. Fear not, though -- I am here to help you decipher which storylines from those games you should buy and which ones you should not. Here are the things I believe in and don’t believe in: 

Buy: the Matisse Thybulle renaissance

You’ve probably forgotten by now, but Matisse Thybulle’s season did not leave off in a strong place when the league was suspended. His production had declined significantly in the weeks and months leading up to the break, and he’d been clearly hitting a rookie wall of sorts, as I wrote just before the season shut down. Here is a table of his monthly splits from that piece:

In these three exhibition games, though, Thybulle has looked to have regained the type of defensive energy and impact that allowed him to put up monster steal and block numbers earlier in the year. He is back to wreaking maximum havoc in all sorts of ways. 

Thybulle absolutely tormented Dennis Schröder against the Thunder on Sunday, which was our first reminder in quite a while of how Thybulle is capable of making established NBA point guards look like deer in headlights. He finished that game with two steals, a block, and who knows how many deflections in just 19 minutes.

Despite his shooting issues -- he was 3-for-12 from deep in the three games -- Thybulle made a strong case to be included in the playoff rotation. My guess is that Thybulle, Glenn Robinson III, and Furkan Korkmaz each pop in and out of the rotation, but Thybulle remains the most consistent out of the three of them.

Because the Sixers lack a microwave scorer off the bench, Thybulle’s ability to wreak havoc on defense is often the closest thing they get to having a bench player that turns the tides of games -- someone who gives a jolt in the arm that brings the team’s energy level back to where it needs to be when they’re dragging a bit. That type of playmaking is too valuable to be wasted; Thybulle deserves a real playoff role if he keeps up this pace.

7/31 Order Deadline For Playoff Delivery!

Sell: The Ben Simmons jump shooting revolution

After two (TWO!) 3-point attempts in Friday’s game against the Grizzlies, Ben Simmons did not attempt a 3-pointer in either Sunday’s game against the Thunder, or Tuesday night’s game against the Mavericks. 

One could write the latter games off as being a result of the ball not finding him, or Simmons simply playing in the flow of the game. But there was only one other Sixer to appear in both Sunday’s and Tuesday’s games and not attempt a 3-pointer in either: Norvel Pelle. Playing within the flow of things doesn’t demand that one goes a game and a half without a 3-pointer.

I do absolutely believe that Simmons has made some progress on his shot. I’m expecting him to attempt somewhere around .5 3s per game -- way up from his usual average of 0.0! But at this stage, I think most of the value in Simmons’ shooting will simply be our own enjoyment and celebration. 

I was torn on whether to call that buying or selling this storyline, because I do believe that this could be a small but important step in his shooting evolution. But I don’t buy the idea that he’s now going to be an average-ish shooter, bombing away multiple attempts per game. In the midst of a meaningful playoff series, I can’t imagine it being a real factor -- by Game 6 against Heat, we may have already forgotten that we ever had this conversation in the first place.

Buy: Alec Burks claiming his share of minutes

It’s been an ongoing discussion as to which bench players will rise to the top in Brett Brown’s rotation. Burks, Thybulle, Korkmaz, and Robinson III all seem to be competing for some share of minutes. Burks, though, has to be narrowing in on being a lock for the playoff rotation. His skill set is too rare on this roster for it to be wasted. 

In the scrimmages, most of the Sixers’ lulls on offense revolved around a sheer lack of playmakers. Burks at least provides a guarantee that something will result from him touching the ball -- good or bad, his pick and rolls won’t lead to a possession reset. 

Burks has had a quick trigger on catch and shoot 3s during the scrimmages, as well. He looks comfortable enough filling an off-ball role alongside Simmons and/or Shake Milton. It’s not at all difficult to imagine Burks playing a solid, low-maintenance role throughout the playoffs, with one crucial eruption for 25 or so points. I like his chances of making an impact, and I think he’s successfully locked down his spot in the rotation.

Sell: Embiid playing 38 minutes per game in the playoffs

Brett Brown has doubled and tripled down on his suggestion that Joel Embiid will ideally play around 38 minutes per game in the playoffs. I don’t buy it. It’s not going to happen, for the simple reason that it’s a terrible idea and Brown will eventually realize as much.

Embiid sitting out the final two scrimmages due to discomfort in his right calf has barely anything to do with it. We all watched Embiid be horrendously gassed during last year’s series against the Raptors in which he averaged 33.9 minutes per game. Sure, he was dealing with injuries, but even when healthy, 38 playoff minutes is too much for Embiid.

The Sixers have Al Horford -- a far overqualified backup center who makes $28 million and cannot play power forward. It’s okay to play him more than 10 minutes per game!

Buy: Shake Milton balancing out the starting lineup

Milton didn’t light the world on fire in these three scrimmages, but I liked the general balance he provided to the starting lineup while playing point guard. He characteristically picked his spots well and made correct decisions whenever the ball ended up in his hands. 

This is something I pointed out on Twitter, but Shake’s ability to make mid-dribble passing reads opened things up for the offense quite a bit. One major flaw in the Sixers’ offense this season was the total lack of ball movement and drive-and-kick type offense, and Shake was able to remedy some of that with his ability to force close-outs, beat them, and make a smart passing read. 

Don’t underestimate the value that simple plays like these have. For many other players on the Sixers roster this season (Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, Glenn Robinson III, previously James Ennis), catching the ball in these situations only leads to a possession reset. Because Shake has the ability to attack these openings and make passing reads, the ball will start to zip around the perimeter like so:

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He’s not going to instantly turn them into the 2014 Spurs, but I was encouraged by the fact that the flow to the Sixers’ offense was somewhere near that of a normal basketball team in these scrimmages, compared to the slow-paced, white knuckling offense that we saw for most of the season. 

The one mild concern I had from the Shake at the point experience in these games was that he has been iffy at beating a full-court press against dogged defenders. They get under his long, skinny frame and disrupt his handle with ease.

It’s a concern, for sure. But look: the Sixers don’t have any point guards. In case you haven’t heard, that’s kind of their shtick. Unless you’re dying for Raul Neto playoff minutes, you’ll have to take your chances with Simmons and/or Milton breaking a press. All in all, playing Milton at point guard is still well worth it.