Don't Fear the Play-In

Come on baby, take MOC's hand.

Before I get into the analysis here, let’s just acknowledge a simple fact: the Sixers are very, very likely to end up in the play-in tournament. Draftkings currently has them at -360 odds to be in the play-in, they are just a half a game up on the 8-seed Pacers, and the team is overall not trending in a positive direction, having now lost 12 of their last 16 games. 

For weeks now, fans, media and the team have harped on the importance of staying out of the play-in tournament. I’ve got to say, I don’t see it as carrying nearly the same weight as most others seem to. I am not scared of the play-in tournament, and in fact, I believe there are legitimate benefits to ending up as the 7 or 8 seed.

For starters, Cleveland is most likely to end up as the No. 2 seed in the East. It’s getting tight between them and Milwaukee — they’re actually tied in the standings currently — but they’re still one in the loss column ahead of the Bucks, they have a far easier remaining schedule, and DraftKings has them as a -150 favorite to beat out the Bucks for their division. And I see the Cavs as being a far preferable first round matchup to either the Bucks (currently No. 3) or Knicks (No. 4) – I would not want to have to have a rock fight against the Knicks in the first round without home court advantage, only to then have to meet the Celtics in round two if they got past them. 

Then, there’s the possibility of being the No. 8 seed and catching the Celtics in the first round. And, look – I would understand anyone’s fear of the Celtics after all of the ass-kickings they have given the Sixers over the years. But if you take it as a given that the Sixers would have to play the Celtics eventually in order to get out of the East, there is a strong case to be made that they are best off doing so in round one.

That case being: Joel Embiid has gotten injured in three consecutive seasons in the first round of the playoffs, and then been hampered heading into round two. By catching the Celtics earlier rather than later, it gives Embiid the best possible chance of being fully, completely healthy (assuming he comes back fully, completely healthy at all) against an elite Eastern Conference opponent – something which he has never been since entering his MVP-caliber prime. I’m not salivating at the thought of facing the Celtics by any means, but more so than anything, I want to see Embiid have a legitimate chance at full health to take on an elite opponent, and being the No. 8 seed would give them that.

Those who disagree would rightfully point out that anything can happen over the course of two games, and that you’re two cold shooting nights away from ending your season. But…in the playoffs, aren’t you always two cold shooting nights away from ending your season? At a certain point, if you’re going to spend your time believing in and advocating for Joel Embiid being one of the best players in basketball, you have to strongly believe in his chances of winning at least one out of two games against the Magic and the Bulls. I have very little concern that the Sixers would end up as the No. 7 seed and then lose their way out of the play-in; Embiid is too good for that.

(The other obvious, if slightly longer-term benefit here is the fact that ending up near the bottom of the playoff picture would allow the Sixers to secure the No. 16 or 17 pick in this year’s draft, and the value of that pick will help them whether they keep it or not.)

5 Big Sixers Questions

In short, I think people have gotten too swept up in the uncertainty of those two games and have neglected to consider what a nightmare ending up as the fifth seed would be. The Knicks – currently entrenched in the fourth spot – are going to be an absolutely brutal playoff matchup for any team, but perhaps especially the Sixers, with all of the physicality they have on the wing. All else equal, I would easily rather take my chances as the No. 7 seed against the Cavs, as I’m highly dubious of either Jarrett Allen or Evan Mobley’s ability to guard Embiid, and the Sixers’ defense could shrink the floor off of them whenever they share the court together. Also, the Sixers could exploit Allen’s weaknesses on the defensive glass, just like the Knicks did last year.

To end up as the No. 7 seed – playing the Cavs, and on the opposite side of the bracket as the Celtics – is probably the best case scenario, all things considered. Being No. 6 and facing Doc Rivers’ Bucks would probably be my second choice by a safe distance; there’s a lot of weirdness to that team, but Giannis’ greatness outweighs all of that. I would not at all be thrilled about seeing them in round one. Being No. 8 and having a fully healthy crack at the Celtics would easily be my third choice. And being No. 5 and having to most likely go through a path of Knicks-Celtics-Bucks in order to get out of the East would be far and away my last choice. 

Looking at all of the possibilities for what they are, it’s not at all cut-and-dry that staying out of the play-in means better chances in the playoffs. I have very little concern that the Sixers (with a healthy Embiid) would lose two straight to a couple of mediocre teams, and I could see the positives of them ending up at either No. 7 or No. 8. The play-in is not the boogeyman everyone is making it out to be – just ask last year’s Lakers or Heat.