“Evaluation Mode”: How Is Nick Nurse Sizing Up the Sixers’ Supporting Cast?
With the playoffs just one month away, the Sixers still have a lot to figure out. Dan Olinger is here to help.
The second half of this season hasn’t been easy on Nick Nurse. After a 29-13 start, his team has been decimated by injuries, and is now just 9-17 over its last 26 games, with a total of 28 different starting lineups now used so far this season.
But the coach still has a goal in mind. He knows what everyone else does: All that matters is how this team looks when Joel Embiid returns. Thus, the coach is – by his own admission – using these Jo-less games to just get a better grasp on what he has in his locker room.
“Even before Joel’s injury, I was telling you guys I’m in super evaluation mode,” Nurse told reporters before the game against the Pelicans earlier this month. “I’m seeing who can execute what we need to execute when we get our people back. I’m still doing that. I’m scrutinizing things pretty hard.”
With the reigning MVP seemingly due to return in early April, and a daunting West Coast road trip on the horizon, it’s time to mimic Nurse’s own task — to evaluate the remainder of this roster, and see who needs to be in the Sixers’ rotation come playoff time.
Tyrese Maxey and Embiid are obviously the stars around which the rest of the players orbit, and it figures Nurse already has his evaluations of them set. As for Tobias Harris, who is currently in the worst two-month stretch of his entire career… talking about him finally getting his minutes slashed is just shouting into the void. It has never happened and it doesn’t seem likely to ever happen, no matter how bad No. 12 looks on the court. Believe me, if I thought Nurse would bench Harris in response to his poor play, I would write about it. But it seems that his evaluation of Tobias as a starter and key rotation piece is written in pen.
With that said, here’s a look at the rest of the roster with and where they’re at in the Sixers’ pecking order with just 14 regular season games remaining:
Nico Batum
Here are Batum’s three-point shooting splits in games he’s played with Embiid vs games without Embiid this season:
Games with Embiid — 33-for-70 from three (47.1%)
Games without Embiid — 19-for-60 from three (31.7%)
Seems like No. 21 makes a big difference out there!
Now there are obvious caveats and counters to the idea that Embiid’s presence alone swings Batum’s three point accuracy by 15 percentage points. The French forward only attempts three triples per game, and shooting volume that small is bound to invite variance throughout the season. And while it’s more difficult for Batum to get wide open looks from deep without Embiid, there have still been plenty of occasions where a teammate has found him wide open in the corner during the past month, only for the shot to careen off one side of the rim.
The bigger point is this — no one should have any worry about Batum come playoff time. The whole purpose of having him in Philadelphia is that he's the perfect fit with Embiid, something he proved with his play early in the season. If Embiid is back in time and looking like himself for the postseason run, Batum will play major minutes and do all the perfect role player things we came to expect from him during the first half of this bizarre regular season.
So relax, sit back, and rewatch all of Batum’s perfect post entry passes to Embiid from earlier this season. He’s one guy no Sixers’ fan should be worried about.
CONCLUSION: KEY PART OF THE PLAYOFF ROTATION
De’Anthony Melton and Robert Covington
There’s really no question as to whether Melton should play. He’s one of the best shooters and defenders on the team, and he doesn’t need plays specifically drawn up for him to provide value.
The same is true of Covington to a lesser extent (though it’s worth recalling Nurse’s strange preference for Marcus Morris over RoCo all the way back in December).
There’s only one question that really matters for these two — are they going to be healthy? Melton’s back issues have been well documented throughout the season, and the updates have only made the situation sound worse. Melton said his back “gave out” in Boston, while Nurse said there’s no timeline for his return at the moment. Covington was put on ice right before the calendar year flipped to 2024 and was supposed to return “in about three weeks” — according to an update now given four weeks ago — though he did recently resume non-contact practice. In total, RoCo played just 26 games for the Sixers, and has now missed 36 straight matches since being put on the injury report with a left knee bone bruise.
Given that the Sixers’ healthy starting five of Maxey-Melton-Tobias-Batum-Embiid was washing teams off the face of the earth earlier this season, it’s reasonable to presume Melton would keep his starting gig over Hield, Oubre and even Lowry during a postseason return. The only true reason to bring him off the bench would be health-related, as perhaps Nurse could need to use Melton only in sparring minutes to prevent him from reaggravating his back injury.
Covington, if healthy, can slot into any lineup alongside any four players and do what he’s always done — space the floor by launching threes, and deflect everything in sight on defense. Whether or not these two are physically capable of playing basketball in April and May is the only question anyone should have about them right now.
CONCLUSION: BIG PARTS OF THE PLAYOFF ROTATION IF HEALTHY (BUT A BIG IF)
Kelly Oubre Jr., Buddy Hield and Kyle Lowry
Each of these three provide a unique skill that no one else in the current rotation brings at the same level:
Oubre has become the captain of drives and rim pressure post-Embiid injury, accepting his role after a brutal two-month stretch where he was shooting a lot of jumpers and missing all of them. Now he’s the only guy on the Sixers over 6-foot-6 who can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket when the team desperately needs a bucket.
Hield is the movement shooter that Isaiah Joe was supposed to be for the Sixers. Even when he’s off from three, the very threat of him catching the ball and firing forces defense into more compromised positions. Maxey is the only other movement shooting threat on the team, and obviously he’s already busy trying to do everything else right now.
Lowry is the villain, plain and simple. In just 11 games with the Sixers, he’s drawn six charges — six more than Tobias has managed since 2019 — already giving him the team lead in the category. Lowry makes all the winning passes, deflections, and savvy basketball play that this team has missed for years, in ways that frustrate every opponent to an immense degree.
All three have taken their turns in the starting lineup while injuries have ravaged the team, but should Melton and Embiid return, they could also be the first three off the bench come playoff time – and what a bench trio that would be.
CONCLUSION: KEY PARTS OF THE PLAYOFF ROTATION
Paul Reed vs. Mo Bamba
Our wonderful Editor in Chief Andrew Unterberger already wrote a couple thousand words on Monday outlining the BBall Paul vs Mo Bamba saga, so I won’t waste your valuable reading time by writing the same thing twice.
TL;DR — Bamba is a bad rebounder, a bad defender in space, horrible at both setting screens for Maxey and at acting as a short roll release valve when Maxey is trapped. Reed is better at each of those things and is even starting to make his threes. The only thing Bamba is significantly better at than Reed at the moment is being predictable, as Bamba is a predictably bad player for the Sixers each time he’s on the floor. Play BBall Paul.
CONCLUSION: PAUL REED SHOULD BE IN THE PLAYOFF ROTATION, MO BAMBA SHOULDN’T BE ANYWHERE NEAR IT
KJ Martin and Cam Payne
Two completely different players who have seen the floor for the Sixers far more than any fan or writer would have predicted upon their arrivals half a season apart in Philadelphia. Martin and Payne are up to 547 and 327 total minutes played for the Sixers this season, respectively.
Nurse has deployed Martin in a P.J. Tucker-like role whenever the other team has a burly post-up threat he’s deemed too dangerous for Reed to handle straight up. Thus, Martin guards Nikola Jokic, or Giannis Antetokounmpo or whoever, as BBall Paul roams off the opponent’s least dangerous shooter, lurking near the rim to provide weakside rim protection. Martin has not been perfect in this role (while he’s strong, he’s not THAT strong), but he’s been far from a disaster, and he does a good job jolting the Sixers’ transition offense with his ability to get out and outrun slower forwards.
Payne, meanwhile, is as funky as it gets on the basketball court. His shot form is unique and almost looks painful in the manner he releases the ball, and he’s only hitting at a 34.7% rate from deep since arriving in Philly. However, in 16 games with the Sixers, he’s already had five contests where he hit at least three triples, which is no small feat for a guy barely averaging 20 minutes a night.
Playing Payne meaningful minutes is essentially a simple binary question at this point — if he’s hitting his threes, he should get minutes. If he’s not, let him ride the bench.
Martin’s shooting touch and Payne’s size are glaring issues that prevent them from having more consistent roles with the Sixers — as they have with other NBA teams throughout their respective careers — and thus, they’ll probably be getting a DNP from Nurse if the full team is healthy. But should injury disasters strike again, these two are most likely the first guys Nurse would throw out there to stem the tide.
CONCLUSION: (CONDITIONALLY) KEY PARTS OF THE PLAYOFF ROTATION
Ricky Council IV
Here are the top five players in free throws attempted per 100 possessions this season, with a minimum of at least 200 regular season minutes played:
Joel Embiid (17.1 free throw attempts per 100 possessions)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (15.2 FTA per 100)
Ricky Council IV (14.6 FTA per 100)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (12.4 FTA per 100)
Jimmy Butler (11.5 FTA per 100)
Now obviously, my 200 minutes played threshold is some pretty egregious stat query manipulation (Council has played exactly 202 minutes this season). Still, that’s an eye-popping list that matches what everyone sees on the court when Council plays.
He’s fallen out of the rotation in favor of Payne, Martin, and Lowry, as Nurse seems hesitant to give C4 the reins unless he scores on his first few drives. But even in brief cameos, Council still generates a trip to the free throw line whenever he touches the ball.
Council’s free-throw-drawing skill comes not through grifting, nor random preferential treatment from officials, but simply through forcing the issue. At 6-foot-6 and 205 pounds, Council is an absolute tank and plays like it. When he gets into the paint, he seeks out contact and jumps into opposing players chest-to-chest, fully embracing the mid-air collision. There are no fancy up-and-under finishes for C4, just miniature car crashes that continually end with him earning shots at the charity stripe.
Now Council obviously has his flaws as an undrafted rookie. The jumper is somewhere between “that doesn’t look too clean” and “probably just leave him open if he catches the ball,” and though he is an expert driver, Council has not yet learned how to turn his rim pressure into open looks for his teammates. The more games he’s played, the more opponents have helped off open shooters on Council’s drives to clog the lane, banking on the idea that the rookie would try to force his way to the hoop instead of finding the open man.
Though he doesn’t even have a real NBA contract yet, Council has been a great find for the Sixers this season. But you kind of have to give him the ball and get out of his way to bring out his best value, which is obviously something that won’t happen with Embiid and Maxey on the court in the playoffs.
Council will likely ride the bench for any sort of playoff run, but he’s shown enough that Nurse might just break him out in a crucial game in case the team is dying for a touch of athleticism and rim pressure.
CONCLUSION: NOT IN THE PLAYOFF ROTATION, BUT A “BREAK GLASS IN CASE OF EMERGENCY” GUY
Kai Jones
Jones only played 67 games in Charlotte, and they didn’t go particularly well. However, the Hornets’ developmental environment the past few seasons has been brutal to say the least, and Jones is still an S-Tier raw athlete – one who has at least shown some previous production in NBA games.
The signing is probably just Daryl Morey taking a swing on a guy with all the tools in the world, and doing whatever he can the keep the team from drowning in the remaining 2-3 weeks without Embiid. It likely won’t mean anything in the long term. The only thing I can say with certainty about Jones is this: he’s 6-foot-11 and can do a kip-up (a.k.a. a rising handspring). If you have no what that is, watch this clip from Kai Jones’ college days.
No idea if that helps on the basketball court at all. But it is ridiculously cool, and that has to be worth *something*.
CONCLUSION: DEFINITELY NOT IN THE PLAYOFF ROTATION (BUT MIGHT BE COOL)
Daniel Olinger is a writer for the Rights To Ricky Sanchez, and author of “The Danny” column, even though he refuses to be called that in person. He can be followed on X @dan_olinger.
“The Danny” is brought to you by the Official Realtor Of The Process, Adam Ksebe.