Four Things We've Learned From the Embiid-Less Sixers
The games don't mean a lot right now, but here's a handful of important things we can take away from them.
Since Joel Embiid went down at the end of January, things have not gone so well for the Sixers. They are 6-10 overall, they have the worst defensive rating in the league during that stretch and they’re 25th in net rating. It has been a complete and utter slog.
And yet, this time period without Embiid (and partly without Maxey, as well) has been very revealing of a few key trends that the Sixers will have to be aware of heading down the stretch. Here is a breakdown of four important things we’ve learned about the rest of the Sixers over the past 15 games.
Kyle Lowry is a core rotational piece
Perhaps the biggest positive to emerge from the past month has been the fact that Kyle Lowry has exceeded expectations in his brief time with the team. He is a lock to be a 25+ minute per game player in the playoffs, and his skill set has proven to be a refreshing addition given the Sixers’ strengths and weaknesses.
As far as their role players are concerned, the Sixers are a team with several questionable-to-low IQ players – Kelly Oubre, Tobias Harris, Buddy Hield, Paul Reed, etc. Having Lowry – a psychotic, unrelenting mastermind – out there to organize traffic and maintain cohesion has been a much needed addition to the Sixers’ offense.
Whereas lineups with some of Oubre-Harris-Hield-Reed had previously lacked purpose and organization, they now revolve around Lowry’s brain, and he is able to help the others fall into place as chess pieces rather than creators.
Lowry is the only player on the team that can make this pass. Small sample size, of course, but he is leading the team in assists per 100 possessions by a wide margin with 9.5. He is averaging 0.8 screen assists per game, more than twice as many as the next best guard on the roster (Buddy Hield, with 0.4). He has been particularly excellent at screening for Maxey to get mismatches. In the playoffs, teams will try to hide their weak defenders on Lowry, so the ability to get them switched onto Maxey will be extremely valuable.
Lowry is a breath of fresh air on this team. He is a maestro on a team that often lacks poise and IQ on both ends. I still wish the Sixers didn’t trade Pat Bev – if Melton isn’t healthy during the playoffs, they are looking at 35+ Lowry minutes and major Cam Payne minutes – and I still have major concerns about Lowry’s health, but he has absolutely exceeded expectations with his performance.
Paul Reed is best suited in a bench role
It’s been a strange year for Paul Reed. He hasn’t taken the leap that many expected him to, and some could argue that he was in fact better last season. If you do make that case, I would pin that mostly on him struggling a bit to acclimate himself with Nick Nurse’ system – Nurse’s offense calls on bigs to be more of passing hubs around the perimeter, whereas Doc Rivers’ offense simply called for Reed to set a million screens for James Harden and roll to the basket in the exact same way every time.
Reed is never going to be a player who thrives as an orchestrator in a read-and-react offense; his decision-making just isn’t there. And early on in Embiid’s absence, Reed’s decision-making seemed to be even more of an issue – he simply could not resist the urge to call his own number – ultimately resulting in Nurse relegating him to a bench role.
But, since finding himself back on the bench, Reed has stabilized a bit and looks more like the player we’ve known him to be. It seems that the one thing Doc Rivers was correct about when it came to Reed is that the best way to get through to him is to yank his minutes whenever his bad habits start emerging.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned about him in this period, it’s that he’s not an ideal “innings eater” who can easily slot into a 30 minute per game role whenever Embiid misses time. He’s an above-average backup, but I would have liked to see more of an emergence on his part throughout Embiid’s absence — and instead, what we’ve learned is that the increased responsibility and freedom is not, in fact, good for him. Nurse has even opted to go for small-ball lineups with Nico Batum at center in high-leverage situations instead of calling upon Reed, and justifiably so.
Overall, I’m a bit concerned that Reed might just tap out as a solid, 10-15 minute per game backup center. I expected a bit of a leap this year, and it hasn’t come. In fact, his numbers have actually gone down across the board – especially offensive rebounding, which was his best skill prior to this year (7.3 per 100 last year vs. 5.8 per 100 this year). I wish we saw more of a breakout from him not only this season but especially since Embiid went down, but instead what we’ve seen is a total plateau, and perhaps even a falling stock value.
Tobias Harris’ ups and downs are context independent
This one, we already sort of knew. But Tobias’ ups and downs throughout this period without Embiid have certainly proven that he is capable of undergoing massive, brain-frying slumps regardless of where he is in the pecking order of the offense.
Tobias is remarkably consistent in his inconsistency. No matter if you need him to be the second option or the fifth option, there will be stretches of a few games where you feel he’s the perfect antidote for what you need, there will be stretches of (often more than a few) games where you wonder how he ever made it to the NBA, and there will be many, many games where he’s just kind of there.
Truly, it is incredible how similar the experience of the Tobias rollercoaster is regardless of who is around him. Surely, some team in free agency will talk themselves into the idea that he could be better off without having to play off of other high-usage stars. Some other teams might talk themselves into the idea that he would be perfect for a smaller role where he isn’t asked to create many shots.
Nope – this is simply who he is. The sooner you can make peace with the fact that there is no rhyme or reason to how or when he will play well, the better off you will be. There is nothing you can do to help him. He is equally maddening, equally confusing, and somehow equally over- and under-qualified in every single context you put him in.
The Sixers’ rebounding woes are not just about Embiid
Here’s a strange series of stats: From the start of the season up until Christmas Day, the Sixers ranked sixth in the NBA in rebounding percentage. From Christmas Day to February 1 (the date that Embiid went down), the Sixers ranked dead last in the NBA in rebounding percentage. Since February 1, the Sixers are 21st in the NBA in rebounding percentage.
So, there is clearly something going on that is independent of Embiid in regards to the Sixers’ rebounding woes – this issue came about well before Embiid exited the lineup, and has in fact gotten slightly better since he went down.
That’s not to say Embiid’s absence doesn’t play a role; looking deeper at the on/off stats, Cleaning the Glass shows the Sixers to be vastly (4.9 percent) worse as an offensive rebounding team with Embiid on the floor, but a vastly (4.2 percent) better defensive rebounding team. So, he clearly stabilizes the defensive rebounding, which is the far more important side of things – especially in comparison to the board-averse likes of Mo Bamba or small-ball center lineups.
That being said, the key thing to keep in mind when looking at the dates where the Sixers’ rebounding woes started to emerge is that this was around the time De’Anthony Melton and Robert Covington exited the lineup. Both of those guys make excellent impacts on the glass for their positions, and many of the other Sixers role players who’ve filled minutes in their absences leave plenty to be desired in that area.
However, the important thing to make note of here is that the Sixers’ rebounding woes are not permanent. There is a good rebounding team in here somewhere; you don’t rank top-six in the league for two months purely by accident. If the Sixers can achieve full health, I’m not looking at rebounding as an issue heading into the playoffs.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health. Get 20% off E-Lyte, Gut+, and all Body Bio products with promo code FIRECJ at Body Bio’s website.