Is Joel Embiid Ready for the Playoffs?
The MVP is returning to form with the postseason on the horizon.
In his first three games since returning from a serious meniscus injury, Joel Embiid has scored 83 points in fewer than 85 total minutes played.
And that has somehow lowered his points-per-minute average for the season. The reigning MVP is still on track to become the first player since 1962 Wilt Chamberlain to score more points than he has minutes played while suiting up for at least 15 games in a season, per Stathead.
Through the first 34 games of the season, Embiid was the best player in the NBA, and it wasn’t particularly close. But just how close is he now to that earlier version of himself? A limited Joel Embiid is still better than 95% of NBA players, but it might not be enough for the Sixers to make a run through the Eastern Conference in spite of their low seeding. They need No. 21 at least near the peak of his powers if they’re going to pull this off.
Statistically, his raw numbers since returning aren’t yet at the historic level they were previously, though they’re nothing to sneeze at. Most players would kill to put up the 28 points, seven rebounds, and four assists Embiid has averaged the past three games, despite moving at half-speed.
The primary catalyst driving Embiid’s decrease in points, rebounds, and assists per game is the scaling back of his playing time, which most expected the Sixers to do upon his return. He was averaging 34 minutes a night through January, and that’s been reduced to 28 per game the past week.
Most encouragingly, Embiid’s shooting stroke has remained perfectly intact. Of the 83 points he’s scored in his past three games, 26 of them have come on free throws, 14 have come on layups/shots at the rim, and a whopping 43 have come from his silky smooth jumper.
The shooting efficiency is there too. Embiid has made five of his last eight three-point attempts, 26 of his last 30 free throws, and has virtually maintained the elite true shooting percentage that he boasted earlier this season.
It makes sense. Being as large as Embiid is, he’s never needed a ton of lift off the ground when rising up for a jumper. Heck, sometimes he’ll stay flat-footed on the floor while swishing home a shot from distance. A meniscus injury can hurt your ability to bend at the knee and push-off with certain intensity, but on Embiid’s calm, compact jumper, it has little effect. A Joel Embiid with approximately 1.15 healthy knees can still hit jumpers at an absurdly impressive rate.
As pleasing as Embiid’s jumper is, the MVP’s return hasn’t been all sunshine and twitter trolling. Across the past three games, Embiid has committed 15 turnovers, including a dreadful eight giveaways against Memphis that nearly matched his career-worst of nine, to go with a total of 11 assists. Even if assists are a flawed stat that improperly measures a player’s passing, no one wants a 11:15 assist-to-turnover ratio.
He’s looked far less comfortable on post-ups where he tries to back himself all the way to the rim, and on any face-up drives where he tries to beat his defender off the bounce. Whether it’s getting used to the new physicality being allowed by referees post All-Star break, or simply reacclimating himself to NBA game-speed, Embiid’s drives haven’t been as fruitful in April. (It’s notable, though, that Embiid has still attempted 30 free throws in three games, despite the very visible change in the way the game is being officiated. No matter how refs act, Embiid is getting to the free throw line).
Again, this is to be expected. A player doesn’t miss eight weeks with a damaged knee then return in perfect condition. There’s a good chance the Sixers brought Embiid back with seven games remaining in the season for the express purpose of ramping him up before the postseason begins. Better to try and knock the rust off against an eight-man Memphis team than to try it against the Celtics or the Bucks in a playoff game.
Defensively, Embiid has already been a huge positive in his return. The Sixers only allowed 104.8 points per 100 possessions during their games against OKC, Miami, and Memphis, a massive improvement on the 117.4 points per 100 they allowed during the past two months with Embiid absent, per Cleaning the Glass.
However, with his conditioning not yet where hopefully will be, he has not been exerting his full effort at times. He’s passed up on contesting certain shots at the rim, and he’s struggled to run back in transition. His presence and the fear he puts in opposing players alone offers a significant boost, but he’s rarely running at the 100 percent effort needed to be the All-Defense-level player that he annually is when healthy.
Still, when the time comes and the Sixers call upon their MVP to make a stop that wins the game, he’s been more than up to the task. Embiid can still crank out the S-tier defense in a moment’s notice. He’s just saving it for specific moments right now, and he should be at full tilt come playoff time.
Is Joel Embiid ready for the playoffs? If he’s not yet, he seems pretty close. The jumper still looks soft as ever, and the defensive peaks outweigh the gaffes. Really all that’s left to be seen is whether he gets his comfort as a driver and as a back-to-the-basket scorer back before the postseason starts.
Sixers fans have only seen Embiid at full health for one playoff run, and it came during the 2020 nightmare season that was already a lost cause. Believing that everything will go according to plan with him from here on out seems like a fool’s errand.
But the belief is tempting. Embiid has never been as good as he was before getting hurt this season. The team around him has never been as perfect a fit as it has been this season. The meniscus injury was the only roadblock that got in the way of this feeling like “The Year.” So long as Joel Embiid gradually returns to his former self in time, the reasons to pick against the Sixers in the playoffs grow fewer by the day.
Daniel Olinger is a writer for the Rights To Ricky Sanchez, and author of “The Danny” column, even though he refuses to be called that in person. He can be followed on X @dan_olinger.
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