Four Thoughts on the Sixers' Offseason and Potential In-Season Trade Targets
MOC talks a lot at the state of the present (and hopefully future) Sixers.
The more I think about where the Sixers stand, the more positive I feel about the off-season they’ve had. To sit here on July 12th having gotten a perennial All-Star, two starter-level players and an elite backup center while having kept all of their draft picks is just remarkable. It’s not really possible to imagine them having had a better off-season to this point.
And of course, the summer isn’t over. They still have to fill out the roster with minimum contracts, and it’s likely that we see K.J. Martin receive a balloon payment to essentially be a living, breathing trade chip. So, here in this piece, I’d like to hash out some thoughts on how the roster fits as currently constructed, as well as discuss what the Sixers should do moving forward.
Paul George’s fit with Joel Embiid is better than any of PG’s prior co-stars
One of the biggest reasons I’m extremely high on Paul George’s fit with the Sixers is the fact that he has never played with someone who creates offense in the way that Joel Embiid does. Of course, George has played with a lot of great players in his career – including high-level passers like James Harden – but he has never played with a player who creates inside-out offense like Embiid does.
As great as Harden, prime Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard are, they obviously create offense in completely different ways from Embiid; none of them can collapse a defense from the inside out as effectively and as automatically as Embiid does just by touching the ball. I think George will feast in an offense that is based so much around dumping the ball to Embiid, waiting for the double team to come, and swinging the ball around for open threes or chances to attack close-outs. There is almost no one in the league you’d rather have buttressing Embiid in those situations than George. He has shot over 40 percent on catch-and-shoot threes in five of the last six years and is incredibly fluid off the bounce, making it hard for a rotating defense to wall off when he is attacking a close-out.
So much of what drove everyone nuts about Tobias Harris was the simple fact that he squandered opportunities for easy offense in those situations; when the ball swung to him, it so often became a pump fake and a drive to nowhere, whereas George in those situations is a lights out, high-volume catch-and-shoot threat, as well as an elite space attacker off the bounce for his size. With due respect to George’s previous teammates, none of them created easy opportunities for him at the level that Embiid will.
Better yet, while George’s passing vision is generally very flawed, the one area where he excels is in wrap-around and dump-off passes around the rim. Don’t be surprised next season when George immediately showcases a nifty chemistry with Embiid in those situations.
In each of the last two playoffs, the Nets, Celtics, and Knicks have spent large chunks of each series double teaming Embiid on every single post touch. Trying to do that with shooters like George, Eric Gordon, Tyrese Maxey, and Jared McCain surrounding him will be much, much harder.
Oubre’s and Martin’s physicality round out the starting lineup well
Kelly Oubre joked during his press conference on Tuesday that he could be the third Martin brother, and I think it’s a pretty fair statement. The physicality, versatility, and ruggedness that he brings is quite similar to that of Caleb (and Cody) Martin.
If I had to bet, I’d wager that the opening night starting lineup will be Maxey-Oubre-Martin-George-Embiid. That’s an elite unit on both ends, with a lot of versatility up and down the lineup. I do still think the best version of this team is with an actual power forward in between George and Embiid, but more on that later.
Martin shoots threes at a pretty average volume and percentage, but the one thing that should accentuate his value around Embiid is that he’s quite good at attacking space and getting to the rim against close-outs; he has a lot of shiftiness of the bounce, as well as a nice euro-step and a bunch of funky finishes to go along with high-level vertical athleticism.
The fact that reports about his signing repeatedly referred to him as a power forward, despite not playing much of that in Miami, to me says more about his role and the politics of the situation rather than his actual position. Listing him as the power forward seems to me like an attempt to frame things in such a way as to prevent any possible blame from George for a lack of contributions in areas typically expected from a power forward.
I expect Martin to play with a high motor and do a lot of the things that good role players do;, for example, he was 28th in the league last year in charges drawn. I just don’t expect him to guard a lot of frontcourt players, nor do I expect him to be setting a bunch of screens and hanging out in the dunker spot on offense. This is a small starting lineup that skews heavily towards perimeter skills, and that’s okay. Calling him a power forward won’t change that.
Regardless of the positional breakdowns, I very much like the fit of Oubre and Martin in between Maxey and George; two nice guys who rely mostly on skill and finesse will have two energetic, highly physical psychos in between them. They will add a little oomph to the starting lineup that would have been lacking if the Sixers had gone all in on shooting and playmaking.
Drummond alone isn’t going to fix the team’s rebounding woes
Aside from being littered with mediocre-to-bad passers, the biggest concern about this Sixers roster is the fact that they are still likely to be a well-below-average rebounding team. George’s boarding numbers are about the same as Tobias’, and Martin is average-ish for his position. The Sixers were bottom-five in the league in rebounding last year, and they might be that way again this year.
Drummond is an obvious upgrade over Paul Reed at the backup center spot, but even he is a far better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder; on more than half of the teams he’s played on, the team has been better on the defensive glass with him off the floor than on it. During his half season with the Sixers in 2021-22, the team had the exact same defensive rebounding percentage with him off the floor versus on.
Look, every team is going to have a weakness somewhere, and the Sixers are very likely to be a bad rebounding team once again. I do think that the team simply being bigger than last year would help to some degree; the Sixers were starting Kyle Lowry at shooting guard by season’s end, and were often playing lineups with three guards in them. Just being able to have a collection of 6-5 to 6-8 guys at the 2-4 spots should make for a considerable improvement.
But it is abundantly clear that this team’s most pressing needs are rebounding and passing in the front court – which brings us to our next topic.
A mid-season K.J. Martin trade is obviously looming
After they (presumably) sign K.J. Martin to a one-year balloon contract, the obvious next step is going to be trading him for a real rotation player – likely a power forward – during the season. The Sixers have ample draft capital to attach to him, and they should be able to bring back a starter-level player in return.
As for possible targets, the first name that comes to mind is Kelly Olynyk. He’s a very good passer, he’s physical as hell, and he’s a good rebounder for a power forward. I imagine he might get played off the floor defensively in the playoffs as a power forward, but he’d be an extremely valuable regular-season piece and could potentially be a backup center option in the playoffs. Olynyk is also signed to a reasonable contract through 2026 for around $13 million per year. It’s not a steal of a contract by any means, but his regular season value is quite high, and I think his fit would help out Embiid and George quite a bit. I have absolutely no idea what the Raptors are doing – and I can’t imagine the price would be cheap regardless – but if he’s available, the Sixers should look into it.
If not Olynyk, I do like the idea of going all in on wings and trading for Dorian Finney-Smith, even though he doesn’t solve their rebounding or passing issues. Finney-Smith at least provides a strong frame who can body up to big wings defensively, and has even played some small-ball center over the past couple of seasons. He provides a more natural complement to the grouping of Maxey-Oubre-George-Embiid than Martin does.
Other names that I’d be interested in include Brandon Clarke and Herb Jones. Both the Grizzlies and Pelicans are likely to have to make some difficult salary cap decisions, especially if the Pels can’t find a trade they like for Brandon Ingram. Both of those guys are extremely versatile defenders who are signed to reasonable long-term deals. Clarke, at least, is an excellent rebounder for his position.
One other note on their draft pick status: the Sixers owe their 2027 first to Brooklyn, but it is top-eight protected. If they were to negotiate a trade for Finney-Smith, one of the things they could do to sweeten the offer would be to loosen or remove the protections from that pick. It’s obviously unlikely that pick doesn’t convey, but it would absolutely have value for the team that holds it to be able to have a shot at a top pick if the Sixers suffer a year from hell that season.
The same could be said about the 2025 first they owe to OKC – Kenrich Williams would be a nice trade target there – though that pick is only top-six protected and it’s virtually impossible to imagine that holding any value, so it’s not quite the same as the Brooklyn situation.
I would be shocked if we don’t see a mid-season trade involving Martin and a first round pick or two for a player of the caliber I’ve discussed here. The Sixers have four first-round picks they can trade (plus Jared McCain, if they so choose), and they aren’t going to sit back and hold onto them in a year where they have a real shot at the title.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health. Get 20% off E-Lyte, Gut+, and all Body Bio products with promo code MIKESTUMMY at Body Bio’s website.
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