The Sixers' Playoff Path Is Impossible and That's What Makes It The Year

Everything broke wrong for us with these playoffs, but all that means is that we finally have to do this thing right for once.

Well, as the late great Tina Turner would say, we never, ever do nothing nice and easy. 

The Sixers have tried to do nice and easy before. In particular, there was 2021, when the Eastern Conference rolled out the red carpet to the third round for them, with a No. 1 seed, an angel food cake first-round matchup against the Washington Wizards and at best a carrot cheesecake second-rounder against the Atlanta Hawks. They were mostly healthy, at least by Sixers standards, and as they took a sizable lead and a 2-1 series advantage into halftime of Game Four, it looked for all the world like '21 was finally gonna be The Year for the Sixers -- maybe not for a championship, but at least a conference finals appearance, which by that point in The Process already basically felt like the same thing. Then they blew that game and the game after it, and lost a Game 7 at home whose echoes still haunt me to this day. It was pretty clear right away that the Sixers would never have a better chance to do nice and easy again. 

There are four teams in the Eastern Conference that inspire any amount of real fear in me this year: the Miami Heat, the Milwaukee Bucks (yes even with Doc in tow), the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics. To make it to the finals this year, the Sixers will most likely have to beat all four of them, in that order. The Process Sixers have never had a more terrifying slate ahead of them than they do in these playoffs. They will have to not only beat teams with better records and better resumés than them, they will have to beat teams that have seemingly unbreakable psychic holds on them, some for just this season and some for forever. They will have to beat teams that they simply never beat. What's more, they will have to do it with Joel Embiid, like always, as something of a question mark, after his meniscus tear cost him two months of this regular season, and after a recent re-aggravation has again left both his ability and his availability uncertain.

Does all this mean it's time to backtrack on the Rights to Ricky Sanchez's previously unanimously expressed belief that this is The Year? Helllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll no. The Year is still on. The Year is more on than it's ever been on before. It just means that like Ms. Tina, we're gonna have to do it nice and rough. 

Before we get into that, though, let's take a minute to salute what the Sixers did in the final eight games of the regular season, after back-to-back screwjobs against the Clippers and Cavaliers. 99 times out of 100 "But what if they win out once [player] gets back?" is last-gasp-desperation talk, the sole province of fans too afraid to admit that it's already over. But that's exactly what the Sixers did once Joel Embiid's home return against the Oklahoma City Thunder was announced two Tuesdays ago: They ran the table with Embiid back in the fold, with crucial Ws against the Heat and Magic, gutsy Ws against the Spurs and injury-depleted Thunder, and appropriately businesslike dismissals of the Pistons, Grizzlies and Nets. Guys played their part, guys stepped up, guys made plays when they absolutely needed to. It was exactly what we wanted to see from these Sixers in the final two weeks of the season. 

Well, except for one thing. Celebration of the season-capping victory against the Nets today was of course muted, partly because we were busy scoreboard-watching (if not literally watching) final seeding games for the Pacers, Magic and Knicks -- none of which went the way we wanted -- but mostly because that final W came without the involvement of one Joel Hans Embiid. Word came shortly before tip that Embiid (along with De'Anthony Melton and K.J. Martin) would be sitting the Sixers' regular-season closer, two days after Embiid left the court in the second quarter of the Orlando game with a seemingly re-bothered left knee, and returned at reduced effectiveness for the second half. It was another gut-punch setback for a guy who's already had too many of those over the past decade to count, and the last thing we wanted to see down the stretch of this regular season. 

All that said.... I think it's fine. It's a step in the wrong direction for Joel's progress, and holy hell do I wish he could take the rest of the week off to recover and not have to play at least one more game on Wednesday first, but generally, I don't think it's worth getting too self-flagellating over. The missed Game 82 in particular does not bother me. All year long -- and I mean all year long, with every player of consequence -- the Sixers have dealt with in-game injuries the same way: They rub some dirt on it, get the guy back on the floor for the rest of the contest, and sit them the next game. I couldn't tell you about the effectiveness of this strategy, but at the very least it's consistent: Tyrese Maxey, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre Jr. and even Tobias Harris have all followed similar paths to next-game DNPs. There's a reason why Spike predicted, mere minutes after Embiid's second-half return against Orlando, that he would be sitting against Brooklyn: This is simply how the Sixers have handled business all year. The team says Embiid will be available for the Miami game, and though they are liars, in this case I believe them. 

If there is a reason to be particularly bothered by Joel's recent re-aggravation, it's in the big-picture acknowledgment of his overall frailty. We wanted to believe that the two months Jo missed this season post-meniscus was basically an advance payment on his injury karma for this postseason, and that with his bill already paid, he was finally at liberty to enjoy a long and healthy playoff run, free of the usual dings and tweaks that come with basketball's second season. But it's never worked like that with the Big Man, and likely never will: It's always going to be two steps forward, one step back, him recovering in some areas while taking hits in others. The chances of him ever getting through a postseason without being hampered by something are so small they might not even be worth spending the emotional energy hoping for. And that sucks. A lot. 

The Playoff Shirt Is Here, It Is The Year

But you know what doesn't suck? Having Joel Embiid, even when compromised. Joel's final five games of the season, he was in poor conditioning, he showed little chemistry with some of his new teammates and he often looked physically diminished, totally out of offensive sync or both. And he was still fucking awesome. In those five games -- probably his rockiest five-game stretch of the season -- he averaged 30-9-5 in just 31 minutes a night, shot 50/48/88% and took 10 free throws a game, while averaging over a steal and a block and leading the team to a 5-0 record. That was Joel Embiid at maybe 70%-80%, and he was absolutely still an MVP candidate. He was absolutely still capable of being the best player on a championship team. 

Now of course, that compromised version of Joel Embiid has still consistently proven to be not enough for the Sixers in past postseasons, so it's fair to ask what about this year -- The Year -- might be different. Two things, I think. One is that in these games back, we've seen some very encouraging signs that Embiid has learned how to play more effectively in a diminished state.  Jo's shooting rhythm seems to come back a lot quicker than his physical indomitability these days, and upon his return two weeks ago, he put a clear emphasis on upping his shooting volume, particularly from three -- averaging 2.6 makes on 5.4 attempts from deep in those five games after just 1.2 makes on 3.3 attempts in his first 34. I've been screaming at Joel for years to stop trying so relentlessly to put the likes of Marc Gasol, Bam Adebayo and (of course) Al Horford in the rim and just shoot over them; finally, he may have no choice but to listen. (Hopefully having Nick Nurse be the guy officially tasked with telling him these things instead of Doc Rivers will also help a bit.) 

The bigger thing, though, is Tyrese Maxey. You saw it in that Orlando game: As Embiid started to wobble in the second half and Paolo Banchero and the Magic looked like they were readying their fourth-quarter surge, Maxey was there to quash it with huge buckets at multiple key moments, keeping the Magic at arm's length and allowing Philly to finish the job. The player Tyrese Maxey has become over the course of this season is one that Joel Embiid has truly never had before -- one who can be expected to show up and produce offensively every single night, regardless of circumstance or opponent. Ben Simmons was obviously and emphatically not that guy, James Harden being that guy one night meant you were due for two nights of him being the exact opposite guy. Even Jimmy Butler could only be called on to be that guy so many times in a playoff series. Tyrese Maxey is that guy. He is the second option we have waited for, and if MOC says his playoff run is coming, you better fucking believe his playoff run is coming. 

Tyrese Maxey's Playoff Run Is Coming

So yeah, the Sixers are staring down a tournament board beyond any they have stared down before, starting with Jimmy and his Miami team this Wednesday. As putrid as the Heat have been to end this season -- and trust me, I watched both overtimes of that game against Atlanta, I know -- I still think you'd have to be totally out of your tree to not at least have a little trepidation about a one-game playoff against them. They pantsed us in the final two games of our playoff series against them in 2022, they've won seemingly every regular season game of real consequence against us in the years since, and even in our most recent matchup, we outplayed them by a margin wider than the Sahara and still had to scrape out a final-minute four-point, come-from-behind victory. I have no doubt the Sixers are the better team, but I also have no doubt the Heat can win a one-game series against them. 

Then if we do get through Miami, it's New York in the 2-7 matchup, and though there's significantly less history there -- the two teams have seemingly never been good at the same time -- there's still a decent amount of reason for worry: New York took the season series from us 3-1, with none of those three being particularly close (although Embiid was only active for one of 'em). They're tougher than us, they play harder than us, and they have a better closer than us in Jalen Brunson. Then after them, probably the Bucks -- who I know a lot of folks want to totally discount, because of Giannis' injury, because of Damian Llillard's decrepitude and because of the generall Doc-ness of it all. That's all fair, but if we do get them in the second round, that means they survived their tune-up series against the Pacers, which probably means that Giannis is back, and which probably means that the team has general forward momentum for the first time in months. That team's still not necessarily keeping me up at night, but I'm not looking past them either -- especially since a loss to Doc's new crew of frauds would arguably be the most unstomachable of all for us. 

And then there's Boston. I mean, hell, if we actually get that far, we'll have to make sure the NBA delays Game One of the series to give us proper time to hold the We Finally Made the Conference Finals parade on Broad Street first. But it's only appropriate the Celtics should be the final boss for us here, since they're not only the team that's sent us home three times in the past six years -- most recently last year, in case you happen to have forgotten the worst Game 7 in franchise history -- but the strongest incarnation of the team yet, and very arguably the toughest team of any kind the Sixers would have faced in the playoffs in this era. Beating these Celtics with just 70-80% of Joel Embiid is almost certainly too much to ask; if we beat the Celtics it will be because Embiid left no doubt in their matchup of who the best player on the court was. (And it probably should be said, he may have to do it a lot sooner than the ECFs if we can't take care of business against Miami on Wednesday.) 

 That's a lot to go up against. A whole lot. An only-in-sports-movies lot. But as countless good-hearted quote-tweeters have pointed out to me today -- and which I was already in full belief of myself -- that's what really makes it The Year. We've tried to back-door our way into the Eastern Conference finals. We've hoped a lot of first-round scraps against the pups of the playoffs would get us ready to face the big dogs. We've relied on Jimmy Butler rentals and James Harden miracles to try to push us over the finish line. All of it failed, often spectacularly. The universe seems to be telling us that this isn't something we can shortcut: no one big move is going to save us, no one lucky break, no one wave of well-timed momentum. We have to go out there and win this one by having our guys play like NBA champions for four -- really five -- consecutive playoff series. 

Corner Three: 5 Most Important Sixers Not Named Embiid or Maxey

Tough ask, but the good news is: The Sixers can do it. Joel Embiid has played in 39 games this year, many plagued to some degree with injury. In those 39 games, they are 31-8, a 65-win team's pace, with wins over pretty much every serious championship contender. That's not to say they should've gone 65-17 this year; no team ever has things go perfectly, and even in a normal Embiid year, he probably still misses 15 games and they maybe win 58 games total. But that's still a title-contending team -- and in the case of these Sixers, it's one ending the season a lot stronger than they started, with Kyle Lowry, Nico Batum and Buddy Hield all fortifying the roster and Oubre and Maxey playing the best ball of maybe their entire careers. (Shame about Melton's back and Robert Covington's knee, will miss them dearly on this run, but grand scheme, they're not season-swinging losses.) If Embiid can stay healthy enough to shine brightly as the sun all of this revolves around, the Sixers have the strongest roster of the Process era, and a team that can absolutely go head-to-head with anyone. 

So all right, then: Let's do it nice and rough for once. Let's shut up Jimmy Butler, humiliate Bam Adebayo, and have Kyle Lowry headed to the Wells Fargo Center locker room shrieking to anyone who'll listen, "Terry Rozier over ME?" Then let's remind Jalen Brunson he's only the second-best point guard in the Atlantic division, let Josh Hart give himself an asthma attack trying to out-hustle us, and sell OG Anunoby an up-close free agency sales pitch that'll fuck up his entire world until June 30. Then let's put belt to Patrick Beverley ass, take both Giannis and Brook Lopez officially out of the Best Player in the League discussion, and grant Doc his greatest wish by sending him to an early (and possibly permanent) offseason. And then let's ruin the Celtics' fraudulent dream season, dead the Derrick White All-Star talk, prove the Jayson Tatum allegations, and send all of Boston into a Cus-Crising panic over this impossibly expensive roster they've assembled that they know in their heart of hearts will never win it all. Nothing has broken right for us this year, but we're not gonna lose a minute of sleep worrying about the way things might have been. The big wheel keeps on turning, the Sixers keep on burning, and we're rolling, rolling, fucking rolling to the finals. 

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Andrew Unterberger writes for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez, as part of the 'If Not, Pick Will Convey as Two Second-Rounders' section of the site. You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AUGetoffmygold and can also read him at Billboard. 

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