Three Thoughts on the State of the Eastern Conference (After the KAT Trade)
MOC sizes up the beasts of the East after the Knicks' potentially conference hierarchy-shaking trade this weekend.
It was a busy and productive off-season for the Sixers, but they were not the only team in the East to get significantly better. Most notably, the Knicks overhauled their roster – first with the Mikal Bridges deal in June, and then Karl-Anthony Towns trade this weekend – and it looks as though the Sixers-Knicks rivalry is only going to intensify as these next couple years play out.
After a busy off-season, here are a few thoughts on how the Sixers should feel about the state of the Eastern Conference.
All of the Sixers’ primary competition now has legitimate stretch fives
Even back at the beginning of his career, when he was much more mobile than he is now, the biggest challenge that Joel Embiid faced defensively was matching up with stretch fives; chasing them around and navigating his way through pick-and-pops has been an issue for him dating all the way back to the 2018 Sixers-Celtics series when matched up with Al Horford. And, of course, even in moments when Embiid guards his matchup well, it still neutralizes what he’s best at – protecting the rim – by forcing him to stay out on the perimeter.
And now, after the KAT trade, all three teams that are presumed to pose the biggest threat to the Sixers in the Eastern Conference – the Celtics, Knicks, and Bucks – each have legitimate stretch fives that must be guarded closely on the perimeter, in Kristaps Porzingis, KAT, and Brook Lopez. You can safely bet that at some point in the playoffs, this dynamic will be a massive challenge for Embiid.
Against the Bucks, there of course is an alternative option to have Embiid guard Giannis, thus taking any potential pick and pop concerns out of the equation. Against the Knicks, the Sixers could perhaps stick Embiid on Josh Hart and allow him to maintain his status as a roamer. But in either of those scenarios, not only does Embiid still have to work quite hard, but it also invites mismatch problems against two excellent post players in Lopez and KAT – in those situations, the Sixers’ lack of size on the wing will hurt their ability shapeshift their defensive matchups. One could argue that if the Sixers are dead set on switching Embiid off of centers and onto non-shooting wings in the playoffs, it makes the need for a true starting power forward even more serious.
Outside of those two matchups, there are the Celtics, who of course have no non-shooters in their rotation and offer no safe space for Embiid to hide. He will have to chase Porzingis around.
It really is remarkable how concentrated the league’s supply of stretch fives is within the Eastern Conference – there are almost none of them out West, and every Eastern Conference contender has one. Even the Pacers, who some could argue will crack the top-4 in the East, have a legitimate stretch five in Myles Turner. In that matchup, there’s a good case to be made for putting Embiid on Pascal Siakam and moving a wing onto Turner, who is less of a post-up threat than Towns or Lopez.
We’ll surely get an extended look at how the Sixers handle these matchups in the regular season, but for now, the biggest takeaway is once again that Embiid absolutely must be healthy when the postseason comes around; trying to chase these stretch fives around on one leg is not going to cut it. The calculus for Embiid individually in these matchups is unquantifiable, but simple: he has to be more of a mismatch for them than they are for him. If he can repeatedly make mincemeat out of KAT in the post, or can generate easy looks at will against Porzingis, this is all a non-concern.
Let’s all hope that Jayson Tatum is in Revenge Mode
After not winning Finals MVP and then getting a series of DNPs in the Olympics, there’s been a lot of talk online, mostly from Celtics fans, about how Jayson Tatum is going to be incredibly motivated heading into this season. Last week, Tatum said that Joe Mazzulla was “probably the happiest person in the world” that all of this has happened, presumably because it will motivate Tatum heading into this year.
Let me just say, as one of the world’s preeminent Celtics haters, I am begging and pleading for Jayson Tatum to be in Revenge Mode this year. I hope he goes full on Mamba Mentality with this thing – I want to see him chasing his numbers, forcing his own shot more often, seeking out tons of isolations, and going for highlight-worthy 10-dribble combo moves that result in a turnaround fade. I hope he ignores whatever set play Mazzulla calls whenever he has a favorable one-on-one matchup. I hope that he waves off Jaylen Brown in crunch time whenever he asks for the ball in order to assert himself as the alpha. Jayson Tatum in Revenge Mode sounds like the absolute perfect way to get the Celtics historically great offense out of its rhythm and sew discord within that team.
Deep down, every Tatum fan and every Celtics fan knows that I’m right; he and his team are at their best when Tatum is operating as a cog in the machine – the most important cog, to be clear – rather than a self-indulgent heliocentric low-budget Kobe impersonator. The role and mentality that he had last year is the absolute maximum capacity that he has to impact winning. If he does take this summer personally and decides to go into Revenge Mode sponsored by Mamba Inc., I promise you that Joe Mazzulla will not be the happiest person in the world – it’ll be me.
The fact that the Sixers have their best perimeter defense in years will pay massive dividends
If there’s one thing that could make the stretch five issue a bit less of a concern, it’s that the Sixers now have their best perimeter defense in years – likely since 2019 with Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler. If Embiid isn’t going to be there to protect the rim, the Sixers at least need to be very good at keeping opposing guards and wings in front of them, which I believe they will be.
I think people are underrating how good of an on-ball defender Caleb Martin is, and I think that the worries of Paul George’s defensive decline have gone a bit too far. Generally speaking, I feel very good about the ability of Martin, George, and Oubre to match up with an opposing team’s three best perimeter players.
In a hypothetical Knicks matchup, I like the Oubre-Brunson, Martin-Bridges, and George-Anunoby matchups for the Sixers; simply not having to put Tobias Harris or Kyle Lowry on one of the opposing team’s best players will be a massive upgrade. A Celtics matchup in which Martin, Oubre, and George handle Holiday, Brown, and Tatum feels like a much better proposition than matchups in years past, as well.
Time will tell if the Sixers’ proposed starting five is the best possible grouping, or if the need to trade for an actual, starting-caliber power forward becomes apparent. But regardless, I do think that one area in which this current grouping will shine – and one that just became more valuable given the way that other teams in the East are constructed – is their improved ability to guard perimeter players one-on-one and avoid giving up constant blow-bys to the rim.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health. Get 20% off E-Lyte, Gut+, and all Body Bio products with promo code MIKESTUMMY at Body Bio’s website.