Sixers Stay Or Go: Likelihood Each Player Returns
How much roster overturn are we getting?
Adam Aaronson, whose legal name is Sixers Adam (@SixersAdam on Twitter), covers the Sixers for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez. He has been legally banned from covering the team in person, and when that ban was set to be lifted, Covid-19 struck. He believes cantaloupe is the best food in existence, and is brought to you by the Official Realtor of The Process, Adam Ksebe.
I’m not sure what’s weirder: that I’m beginning to map out the Sixers offseason in August, or that I’m doing it while the first round of the NBA Playoffs is still going on.
This Sixers season has been stunning in just about every possible way -- basketball-related or not -- but there won’t be time to reminisce on the year that was. As soon as the playoffs end, the Sixers have to get moving on fixing so many of the issues that exist within the infrastructure of this team.
The first step is evaluating what is here currently and identifying who should stay and who should go. Which Sixers are most likely to be back next year, and which are likely looking towards their next teams?
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons: 100% chance of being back
People are frustrated with the offensive fit of these two. And believe me, I get it. But Ben and Joel were put in just about the worst possible position to optimize their abilities. Each player has problems, but neither is the problem. The idea should not be to move Simmons or Embiid, rather it should be to properly surround them with supporting talent that fits.
Josh Richardson: 60% chance of being back
Richardson drew the ire of many in the playoffs because of how clear it was that he wasn’t capable of carrying much of a load offensively. Given who the Sixers have at the top of their roster, it makes sense that Richardson may be replaced by an offensive-oriented player. With that being said, trading a good player and improving is hard, and the Sixers won’t move him for pennies on the dollar.
Tobias Harris: 100% chance of being back
There is just no way anyone will be willing to absorb the remaining four years of Harris’ gargantuan contract, perhaps the least valuable deal in the NBA outside of John Wall. Harris is a decent player being paid like a superstar and he needs to improve leaps and bounds if the Sixers want to become contenders again.
Al Horford: 25% chance of being back
A Horford trade seems likely for just about every basketball reason under the sun. If it were up to the Sixers, there would be a zero percent chance. However, the NBA has a salary cap, and Horford takes up quite a bit of it. The Sixers will need to not only accept defeat on the idea of Horford in Philadelphia, but they will also need to likely take back an overpaid player -- though it should at least be someone who makes sense with this team -- and they may have to part with valuable assets to do this. Shedding the Horford deal will not be easy.
Shake Milton and Matisse Thybulle: 90% chance of being back
I can only see the Sixers moving either of these two if they are not only shedding a large salary, but also acquiring a major contributor in the process -- Chris Paul, perhaps?
Furkan Korkmaz: 85% chance of being back
When the Sixers failed in their pursuit of Kyle Korver last summer, they brought back Korkmaz in hopes that he would be able to fill a bench role with his shooting. Fortunately for them, he did so as much as anyone could have hoped. That alone makes the signing a win. But it actually gets better: if Korkmaz had signed a one-year deal, he would have been given a no-trade clause. To avoid this, the Sixers tacked on a second year to his deal, non-guaranteed at the minimum. Now, the Sixers will have a reliable offensive player coming off their bench for the veteran’s minimum two seasons in a row. Korkmaz’s skills and salary make him a valuable commodity. While he is not as crucial to the team’s future as Milton and Thybulle, he should only be given up if there is good reason to be willing to part with a young and inexpensive shooter.
Alec Burks: 40% chance of being back
Because he had signed a one-year contract with the Warriors for the veteran’s minimum, the Sixers have no real advantage in re-signing Burks this offseason because of salary cap minutiae regarding one-year contracts with new teams. However, Burks showed at times that he can be a piece of this team’s rotation thanks to his flashes -- even if they are not consistent -- as a shot creator.
Glenn Robinson III: 5% chance of being back
Let’s be honest here: GRIII never wanted to be here, and he fell out of favor pretty quickly. It never hurts to have a wing shooter with some semblance of defensive ability, but it seems very reasonable to assume this won’t be a marriage that sticks.
Mike Scott and Zhaire Smith: 15% chance of being back
These two are both at the point of simply being salary filler, with Scott making just over $5 million and Smith making a bit less than $4 million. I still believe in Zhaire carving out an NBA career on a team with patience and a development program (though having one semi-normal year would probably help him as well), but I don’t think Philly is the place for him. Neither of these two seem to serve the Sixers with any on-court value moving forward, so I would expect them to be parts of trades in one way or another.
Raul Neto: 20% chance of being back
If it were up to me, this percentage would be higher -- in what is oddly an extremely polarizing position nowadays, I like Neto and believe he is a perfectly competent backup point guard. I would gladly welcome him back, but free agent minimum contract guys returning the next year generally is not commonplace.
Kyle O’Quinn: 5% chance of being back
Speaking of minimum signings, Kyle O’Quinn had a brutal season and clearly serves no on-court value here. His locker room presence, as told by folks around the Sixers and documented on Matisse Thybulle’s YouTube channel, is enough to at least give him a slim chance of coming back on another minimum, though.
Norvel Pelle: 50% chance of being back
Lastly we arrive at Pelle, whose two-way contract was converted to an NBA contract after the Trade Deadline. He is on the books for a miniscule amount of non-guaranteed money for next season. That could lead to him being a sweetener or salary filler in a trade, or even being a preseason cut. But the Sixers continue to appear optimistic about the potential that can be derived from his outlier physical tools, so there is a very real chance he is on the roster when the 2020-21 season begins.