What Does the Next Step Actually Look Like for Tyrese Maxey?
There's been a lot of talk about whether or not Tyrese can take yet another leap this season. MOC dives into what it would actually consist of if he did.
The defining storyline of Tyrese Maxey’s career is his ability to surpass expectations. From cracking the rotation as a rookie drafted late in the first round in 2020, to averaging 26 points per game and making his first All-Star team a few years later, each and every step up to the next level has been something of a surprise, even for those who were already bullish on Maxey.
But this time, heading into his fifth season, it’s fair to wonder if this is the year that Maxey starts to plateau. After all, it’s quite normal for star players his age to start to level off, and it’s not as if there’s a ton of low-hanging fruit in terms of potential improvements to be made to Maxey’s game.
That being said, Maxey is one of the hardest workers in the league, and nothing should surprise us about his development at this point. He is also walking into the best supporting cast that he’s had in his career. Another monster leap into top-10 player status would be a major surprise, but I do think that it’s likely we see a slightly more refined, polished version of Maxey.
That slight lack of polish was evident in Maxey’s underwhelming Game 6 against the Knicks – his only real stinker of that series, in which he scored 17 points on 18 shots. After Maxey torched the Knicks with a legendary 46-point performance in Game 5, New York came in with a clear adjustment for Maxey in Game 6: they would aggressively help off of the weak side corner on every single one of his drives, and bet that Maxey won’t make the pass.
And their bet paid off. On a couple of these plays, Maxey does end up scoring thanks to some incredible shot-making. On others, he may have had a case for a foul call. But in every one of these clips, there is a teammate wide open in the weak side corner, and the ball never once gets there.
That specific skip pass to the weak side corner is an absolutely crucial part of any guard’s arsenal who handles a high volume of pick and rolls – and Maxey’s inability to see it invites major opportunity for opposing defenses, as evidenced above. If Maxey could make that pass with consistency, his teammates could have had constant open looks from 3 until the Knicks were forced out of that coverage, but instead, he forced himself into a bunch of borderline impossible shots around the rim.
Next season, it would be extremely encouraging to see him make a concerted effort to sling these types of passes early on in the regular season, especially with shooters like Paul George and Eric Gordon likely to be stationed in that weak side corner quite often. The hope is that Maxey is able to practice and drill against these types of defenses with his trainers, and that he enters next season feeling that the game has slowed down and becomes more comfortable making these types of reads on the move.
The most optimistic data point for believing in that happening is the fact that he quickly developed an excellent chemistry with Embiid on pocket passes in the pick and roll last year, copying James Harden’s ability to set the big fella up for an endless parade of short mid-range jumpers. The fact that Maxey developed that pass so quickly points towards the fact that he is able to add certain passes to his arsenal after making a concerted effort to do so.
That said, there is a certain degree of mental processing speed that Maxey sometimes lacks, which doesn’t often go away for NBA players. Maxey’s passing often feels premeditated, and he sometimes lacks the mid-dribble decision-making speed that elite passers like Harden have. There is also some degree of Maxey’s limitations as a passer are due to his size and the frenetic pace that he plays at.
Whether or not Maxey makes a leap as a passer is, in my opinion, one of the biggest storylines of the year for the Sixers. I would bet on him making slight, but not major progress in this area, but let’s be clear – even if Maxey makes zero progress here, he is still an incredible No. 2 option who can make leaps in other areas.
Perhaps the simplest area for improvement outside of his passing would be taking more 3s; Maxey is indisputably one of the best shooters in the league and has elite range. Despite ranking 13th in the entire league in 3-point attempts per game at 8.1 last year, Maxey is such an elite shooter – particularly off the bounce – that he’s leaving money on the table by not taking even more of them. I’m not necessarily expecting him to reach Curry territory (11.8 per game), but somewhere in the 9-9.5 range would be satisfactory to me.
Donovan Mitchell, for example, took nine 3s per game last year. Damian Lillard took around 10 per game in his last few Portland seasons. Pulling up from deep more regularly in pick and rolls would force bigs to defend him even more tightly, and would automatically open up more easy drives downhill.
One other area where Maxey’s game could use some refinement is his mid-range game. I don’t ever expect Maxey to become a mid-range assassin, in large part because he has gotten so comfortable with his step back 3 that he’s able to either launch them at will or leverage them into paint touches by using them to bait his defenders into blow-bys. That’s not exactly a bad thing, but it wouldn’t hurt to see Maxey establish himself as more of a threat in between the rim and 3-point line in order to keep defenders more off balance on his drives when he fails to blow by them. I do think he has the potential to develop some Kyrie Irving-esque combo moves into mid-range jumpers, which Irving has used to punish backpedaling big men in pick and rolls for over a decade now.
The final area for improvement that naturally would take Maxey to the next level would be an improvement on the defensive end. Based on the little bit we’ve seen of him this off-season, it does seem that Maxey has bulked up a bit, which is likely the best possible thing he can do for his defense. He has always been and will always be primarily limited by his size on that end, but his defensive IQ is around average and his foot speed is obviously elite. If he can manage to hold up better on switches thanks to his strength, that will make a major difference come playoff time.
Particularly in a lineup where he is now the only defender who one could even argue is below average, Maxey hitting another level on that end would be massive for the Sixers’ overall identity – if Maxey becomes an above average defender, I would not be at all surprised to see the Sixers crack the top five in defensive rating next year.
All things considered, I think there are some clear areas for Maxey to make minor improvements, but I’m still not expecting a huge leap. His trainer Drew Hanlen says he has made “just as much of a jump this summer” compared to last summer, which is encouraging even if I do find myself skeptical given some of Hanlen’s over-promising in the past. If Maxey does manage to up his 3-point volume while maintaining his percentage, meaningfully improve as a passer, and use his added strength to hold up better on defense, I do believe we are talking about a top-15 player in the league. I remain somewhat hesitant to believe that all of that can happen, but I’d love for Maxey to do what he does best and prove me wrong.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health. Get 20% off E-Lyte, Gut+, and all Body Bio products with promo code MIKESTUMMY at Body Bio’s website.