What Would a Paul George Signing Look Like for the Sixers?

Philly is reportedly circling the Clippers' star forward for the summer. Here's how it could actually happen -- and why we should certainly hope it does.

In case you weren’t on social media on Tuesday, the hot new rumor that came out was that, per John Hollinger of The Athletic, a couple of Eastern Conference teams are “monitoring” the Paul George situation, and that it’s possible that there is no max extension coming for PG. 

Now, this sounds like Hollinger is partially basing this on inside info, and partially basing it off of simple observation and deduction – he is probably correct that if the Clippers were going to give George a max extension, he would have already taken it. And if George was happy to take a hometown discount and extend for less than the max, that would likely have happened already, as well. It’s possible that the Clippers, already staring at an unfathomably expensive roster over the next couple years, are less than excited about giving George (who will turn 35 next season, is injured a lot and has been very inconsistent this season) a full max extension. 

There’s probably still a strong chance he stays in Los Angeles, but putting two and two together would lead you to believe it is indeed a situation worth monitoring. So, I figured this would be a good time to examine what the Sixers’ off-season would look like if they were able to add George, and also whether or not it’s a gamble worth taking. Let’s start by walking through the basics.

First off, the reason the Sixers should be interested in George is obvious. He’s an incredible fit next to Embiid and Maxey, is an elite high-volume shooter, is great at maneuvering without the ball, and has been one of the league’s best wing defenders of all time. Looking strictly at his skill set, you arguably could not possibly find a better player in the league to slot in between the Sixers’ two current stars. 

The most likely means by which the Sixers would actually go about acquiring George is by signing him in free agency. I suppose it’s possible that George could opt into his $49 million player option for next year and the Sixers and Clippers could then work out a trade – perhaps a sign-and-trade involving someone like Tobias Harris or Buddy Hield back to L.A. – but an outright signing feels far more likely. There are no real advantages for George or the Sixers in working out an opt-in and trade. 

George will be eligible for a contract of up to $212 million over four years, which is likely what it would take to pry him away from Los Angeles. His salary for next year would be about $49 million – a bit of a scary number given his age, but in my opinion, a gamble well worth taking for the Sixers given the lack of viable alternatives for landing a game-changing player this summer. 

In order to create the space to sign him, the Sixers would have to renounce their cap holds on every impending free agent on the team except for Tyrese Maxey. For those unfamiliar, cap holds are essentially a placeholder figure that counts against the cap, which gives you the option to sign a player for that amount of money or less, even if you are over the cap. If you choose to renounce a player’s cap hold, that amount of money will come off of your cap sheet, but you can then only sign them if you remain under the cap after doing so.

So, renouncing everyone but Maxey would give the Sixers $58.4 million in space – and here’s something to keep in mind with that number. They could, theoretically, sign De’Anthony Melton or Buddy Hield for a maximum of $9 million for next year, and still have enough room to sign George. For hypothetical sake, let’s say they sign Melton to a one-year, $9 million contract (I struggle to think that Melton will get much more than this on the open market given his inability to stay on the court this year). Then, after adding George’s $49 million salary for next year to the books, they would be right about at the $141 million salary cap.

It’s important to note here that the Sixers should likely have somewhere between the 15th and 18th pick in the draft, and that player will make $3-4 million next year. They’ll also have a second round draft pick from Chicago, and that player is likely to make $1-2 million. Those players’ salaries would count against the cap immediately upon being drafted – so, if the Sixers keep their picks, the amount of wiggle room to re-sign Melton would decrease by that amount of salary. However, I wouldn’t place too much stock into this being a concern – if Morey feels that those picks are prohibitive for them re-signing Melton and signing George, I imagine he would trade them for future picks in a heartbeat. 

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After re-signing Melton and signing George, the next order of operations would be to extend Tyrese Maxey. Assuming Maxey gets the most money he is eligible for, his salary for next season would be around $35.2 million. At that point, the Sixers would be about $20 million over the salary cap, and $19 million shy of the luxury tax.

At this point, the Sixers would essentially have two tools left in their toolbelt: the “room” mid-level exception (worth around $7.7 million), and minimum contracts. The lone downside of the room MLE is that it prohibits them from using their bi-annual exception, but the MLE is worth more money (7.7 vs. 4.5), and doesn’t come with the downside of hard-capping them at the first apron, which the bi-annual exception does. In other words, if they were to use the bi-annual exception, the Sixers could legally not exceed $179 million in payroll this season. 

I would imagine that, assuming there’s interest from both sides in a reunion, the room MLE would make sense for Kelly Oubre; that’s about the salary range I would expect him to get. A room MLE contract can go up to three years – the Sixers could offer Oubre a three-year, $24.3 million contract.

Next, the Sixers would likely start signing players to minimum contracts. It would be ideal if the Sixers could retain at least a couple of Kyle Lowry, Cam Payne, Nico Batum, and Robert Covington on minimums next year. Remember – just because the Sixers renounced their cap holds on these players to create the room to sign George doesn’t mean they can’t later sign these players to minimum contracts. Theoretically, the Sixers could sign all of those players to minimum deals and still be below the luxury tax at that point.

At that point in this hypothetical exercise, the Sixers would be at around a $169 million payroll, which is about $3 million shy of the luxury tax, and would have 10 players under contract: Joel Embiid, Paul George, De’Anthony Melton, Tyrese Maxey, Nico Batum, Robert Covington, Kyle Lowry, Paul Reed, Cam Payne and Kelly Oubre. They would likely be forced to fill out the rest of the roster with minimum contract players – maybe a couple of veterans, Ricky Council IV, and perhaps an undrafted player.

A key thing to keep in mind is that the Sixers would retain all of their draft ammo in this scenario. Unfortunately, though, this type of plan leaves them with very little wiggle room in terms of potential salaries to use in trades. Because of restrictions on trading newly signed players, the only player the Sixers could realistically trade over the summer would be Paul Reed.

While it would suck to trade BBall Paul, could you be talked into the idea of trading Reed and a first for Alex Caruso? The salaries would work, and a Melton-Caruso-George triumvirate on the wing would be one of the best defensive combinations in the league. Trading this year’s draft pick plus Reed would also accomplish the task of freeing up additional cap space to re-sign Melton. Another interesting trade target in that salary range would be Herb Jones, who has been rumored to be on the trade block in the past given the Pels’ precarious cap situation, though his $12 million salary is tougher for the Sixers to match.

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The Sixers, of course, could comfortably go into the season with the roster as I laid out, but the idea of going all-in is enticing given all of the draft ammo the Sixers would still have – they can trade up to five first round picks this off-season. And if they wait until December 15th, they would have more of an ability to match salaries in trades; at that point, they could theoretically combine Reed’s salary with other players (like Melton and Oubre) to go after more high-profile names like, say, Mikal Bridges. 

All of this is obviously very abstract and hypothetical, but everything I’ve laid out here is entirely feasible, and it speaks to what a benefit it would be to sign George as a free agent rather than having to trade a bundle of picks for a superstar. There are major risks to signing George, given his age and injury history, but I personally would be thrilled to give him a max contract given the lackluster appeal of the other options, and the downsides of having to trade for other big names rather than signing them outright. 

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The potential upside of it is almost unbelievable – slotting in the perfect third star while retaining almost all of this year’s roster and losing nothing in terms of draft capital. In terms of risk, the most realistic potential downside George declines due to age or injury and it leaves the Sixers right about where they are now in terms of Tobias Harris – stuck with a max player as their starting power forward who is really worth about half of his current salary. But, in the absolute worst case scenario, the Sixers could likely use some of their draft capital to salary dump George in order to cut bait entirely. So, I see the upside here being enormous, and I don’t see the downside as being catastrophic. 

It still seems like a pipe dream to me – I have a hard time thinking that Steve Ballmer won’t loosen the pocket strings to re-sign George. But if it does end up in a stalemate, and the Sixers are able to throw more money at George than the Clippers can, that would be an incredible outcome for the Sixers, and one that would completely validate Morey’s slow-playing approach, and the cap space plan that he has carefully engineered.

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Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health. Get 20% off E-Lyte, Gut+, and all Body Bio products with promo code FIRECJ at Body Bio’s website.