Who’s Going To Start When Embiid Returns?
Nick Nurse wants a battle royale for his fifth and final starting spot. We break down the cases for each of the contenders.
There’s not much to learn from watching a Sixers game right now.
They’re 7-16 in games without Joel Embiid, 4-11 since he first injured his knee in Indiana, and those last four wins have come by a combined 16 points. The hope is that he’s ready for a late regular-season return. Until then, we’re all just counting down the days watching the current rendition of the team. They were a clear title contender with a healthy Embiid, but resemble a glorified lottery team without him.
All that matters is what the hypothetically healthy Sixers look like in April. And on Thursday, Nick Nurse brought up a question that’s been on everyone’s mind since Daryl Morey unloaded the second-round clip at the trade deadline and totally restocked the team’s backcourt depth — what’s the ideal starting five for a healthy Sixers team?
Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Nicolas Batum and Tobias Harris (more on him later) are all locked in. That leaves De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield and Kelly Oubre Jr. as the primary trio battling for the fifth and final starting spot.
Occam’s razor suggests that Melton should start given that a) it was already his job to begin the season, and b) the Sixers were kicking ass at a historic pace when he played alongside the core four starters.
There are 39 lineup combinations that have played at least 300 non-garbage time possessions in the NBA this season, per Cleaning The Glass. Of those 39 lineups, the Melton-Maxey-Harris-Batum-Embiid unit is No. 1 by a mile, sitting at a nasty +33.3 points per 100 possessions in its time together. The gap between them and the second-best lineup on that list is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 14.
To be fair, the run that quintet has played together coincided with the ridiculously easy portion of the Sixers schedule. A +33.3 lineup is impressive no matter who it goes up against, but there might be a tiny asterisk when you run into the Pistons three times during their 28-game losing streak. Still, the numbers are so jarringly positive that they have to mean something.
Melton is by no means a perfect player (see his At-Rim FG% for evidence there), but he’s a fluid and scalable one whose strengths compliment his teammates. He’s a respected shooter from three and is not hesitant when he has an open look, which allows him to capitalize on the advantages created by Maxey and Embiid. Likewise, he offers just enough ball handling that he can occasionally relieve Maxey’s burden. His penchant for deflections and well-timed digs at the nail make him the team’s second best perimeter defender behind only Batum — and once again, eases the jobs of both Maxey and Harris.
Swap out Melton for Oubre, and you get a lineup that is +3.2 per 100 in 278 possessions — still quite good, but nowhere near the celestial plain the same unit reaches with Melton in. Hield is essentially N/A in this category, as he’s yet to share a single possession with Embiid in Philadelphia.
The idea behind starting Oubre is fun. It gives the Sixers a super-sized quartet around Maxey, and that much size and athleticism can be overwhelming in certain matchups. Getting as much production as the Sixers have out of Oubre on a minimum contract is an undisputable win for the franchise. He generates rim pressure when no one else can, and actually has the athletic prowess to sometimes finish through traffic where others can’t. His off-ball cuts pair well with both Embiid and Maxey, and though he hasn’t shot well from three (just 31.5% this season), he’s trigger-happy enough that opposing teams still defend him as if he’s an accurate marksman.
However, despite Mike’s pipe dream of getting an Oubre five-assist game, his lack of playmaking for others is a real killer. If he catches the ball, one of three things is going to happen — he will shoot the three, pass to the next man on the perimeter without dribbling, or drive in for a shot in the paint. Oubre has no drive-and-kick game to speak of. Once he breaks the three-point arc, he’s set on getting a shot off, even if he’s drawn in opposing defenders and has open teammates surrounding him.
That lack of passing juice on top of him being a slightly worse defender than Melton makes Oubre much more likely to bring a scoring punch off the bench rather than to supplant De’Anthony in the starting lineup in the playoffs.
So how about Hield then? He’s a worse defender than both Oubre and Melton, but offensively he’s a tier above. His three-point shooting is not only more accurate, but also comes with greater volume and variety. The Sixers have already tapped into a number of Spain pick and roll actions with Hield as the back screener during the past few weeks, leaning into new halfcourt sets that weaponize their deadly movement shooter.
Melton is a fine-enough shooter to properly space the floor, and provides ball-handling in a pinch. But he doesn’t fundamentally change the way the Sixers play offense like Hield does.
Not to mention, Hield is a better passer than Melton by leaps and bounds. He can run ball screen actions and hit skip passes to open corner shooters with relative ease, while Melton is more limited to just the basic kickouts that are open to almost everyone on a drive. Assists are an incredibly flawed stat, but it feels instructive that Hield racked up six or more assists in each of his first five games here, while Melton has only done so in three games total out of 35 so far this season.
There could be endless back-and-forth arguing for either player — Melton’s absurd wingspan and sound defensive instincts transform the Sixers into a fierce unit on that end, while his pull-up shooting is just viable enough to keep the offense humming. Hield might struggle against more physical teams (see: the New York Knicks) and has to defend post-ups relentlessly with opponents hunting him on defense, but his shooting is so deadly that with Embiid, he could unlock the highest-ceiling offense the Sixers have ever had.
Melton is a better defender than Hield. Hield is a better offensive player than Melton. Which difference is larger? Your answer to that question ultimately decides who you think should start.
There’s also a third answer – the nuclear option, if you will: starting both Hield and Melton, and benching Tobias Harris in the fifth and final year of his contract.
I was there on Sunday. I heard Tobias booed by the home fans. It’s deserved with how poorly he’s played during the past month. His shot from both three and the mid-range has abandoned him, he’s making bad decisions on his drives, and his defense on anything that isn’t a post-up usually ends with a good shot for the other team. It’s understandable for any fan to see that quote from Nurse and ask, “Why is Tobias’s spot in the starting lineup guaranteed?”
There are a few reasons as to why. At 6-foot-8 and 226 pounds, Tobias’s size legitimately wears on certain teams, particularly when they already have a seven-foot Cameroonian center to deal with. He also makes the collective defensive effort of forcing misses inside and finishing possessions with rebounds easier, even if he himself doesn’t rack up many stats in the process (though his defense on the perimeter has certainly hurt the team as of late).
The more likely reason is the one no one wants to hear: because Tobias has always been a starter. He’s a veteran on a near max contract who once averaged over 20 points per game in a season, and has started in Philly for more than five seasons now. It takes a lot for a coach to bench someone like that.
If the way Tobias played in February is how he plays the rest of the season, he should be benched. I have to believe that he can’t be *this* bad for much longer, and more importantly, I doubt Nurse would ever pull the Bring Tobias Off The Bench lever. That’s why focusing on Melton vs Hield is a more fruitful discussion, because the world where Tobias comes off the bench might just not be a world we’re ever likely to wake up to.
Personally, I’m not one to rock the boat, and would let those Melton plus core four lineups kick ass until proven otherwise. And ultimately, it’s just as important who Nurse closes with in a playoff game as who he starts. The five players a coach leaves on the court with the game in the balance tells you who they really believe is best suited to help their team.
The only three that should be locked into a crunch time playoff lineup for the Sixers are Maxey, Embiid, and Batum — who has obviously looked worse since Embiid’s injury, but still doubles as the team’s best perimeter defender and passer (and apparently their only trustworthy inbounder). His synergy with Embiid is too great to ever leave him off the floor in a playoff setting.
That leaves Tobias, Melton, Hield and Oubre. It’s a lame answer, but who closes each game likely depends on the feel of each individual game. Hield and Oubre have it rolling from three? Keep them in and tell them to let it fly. Tobias has a mismatch he can expose on post-ups inside and Melton has four steals? Normal starting lineup to close the game it is.
Also worth mentioning that Kyle Lowry, who’s looked excellent in his first two games as a Sixer and has more playoff experience than anyone else on the roster – including on a finals team just last season – could also be an option here. We already saw Nurse bench Tobias for Lowry with seven minutes left against the Bucks the other day. So if Tobias is having another disastrous game reading the floor while Lowry has already made three incredibly smart hustle plays? Maybe just put in a three-guard lineup around Embiid with KLow, Maxey and Melton or Hield and cross your fingers.
Nurse continually tinkering with the starting lineup makes a lot of sense. From Embiid’s injury to the myriad of moves Morey made at the trade deadline, this is a completely different team than the one Nurse began coaching at the start of the season. He’s going to take time to experiment and figure out what he has in Melton, Hield, and whoever else, and how they fit alongside his best players.
Most evidence points to Melton as the correct choice for the final first-unit spot, but who they finish with is just a big a question as who they start. Nurse has 25 more games in March and April to figure out who can best help Embiid win basketball games in May.
Daniel Olinger is a writer for the Rights To Ricky Sanchez, and author of “The Danny” column, even though he refuses to be called that in person. He can be followed on X @dan_olinger.
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