Ranking The Sixers By Contract Value
Who gives the most bang for the buck?
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA.
Recently, Spike reached out to me with an interesting thought experiment: which Sixers players are most valuable in respect to their contracts? That is, how do the Sixers rank in terms of on-court value per dollar?
So, this piece will be my effort to carry out that experiment in full. To clarify, this is purely based on value-per-dollar, not straight up value. For example, Tobias Harris is more valuable than Seth Curry, but Seth Curry is more valuable in relation to his contract. You get the point.
Going from most valuable to least valuable, I’ll rank which Sixers are on the best contracts in relation to their true market value.
1. Shake Milton - $1.7 million
The Sixers’ third leading scorer on the team also happens to be their second-lowest paid player on the roster, ahead of only Isaiah Joe. Simply put, Milton is worth probably 8-10 times this salary.
On the season, Shake is averaging 26.7 points per 100 possessions. Here are some players who are in that neighborhood and what they are making this season: Fred VanVleet ($21.2 million), Mike Conley ($34.5 million), Tim Hardaway, Jr. ($16.5 million), and Danilo Galinari ($22.6 million). Now, Milton likely isn’t worth quite as much as these types of players, but he’s close.
The best part? He’s under contract for two more seasons after this one.
2. Furkan Korkmaz - $1.7 million
Korkmaz doesn’t quite have the same value per dollar as Milton, but he’s still worth probably 3-5 times this contract. On a per-possession basis, Korkmaz is fifth on the Sixers in scoring, sandwiched in between Seth Curry and Ben Simmons. When he hits the open market this offseason, I’d expect a team to give him somewhere in the $5-9 million range.
3. Joel Embiid - $29.5 million
Even despite being on a max contract, there’s no debate that Embiid is on an absolute bargain of a contract, given his sheer impact on winning. Pretty much ever since Embiid set foot on the NBA floor, the Sixers have been elite with him on the floor, and mediocre with him off of it. At that point, it barely matters what the price is that you’re paying for it -- it’s still worth it.
This is accentuated by the league’s rules around max contracts. It’s been estimated by many people in the past that a true top-5 player is, in reality, worth well in excess of $50 million per year. But since the league caps the (normal, non-super) max contract at well below that, Embiid is then on a massively discounted deal. Given that as a baseline, on a value-per-dollar basis, I’d argue Embiid is worth around twice this deal.
4. Seth Curry - $7.8 million
It feels like beating a dead horse to talk about how great Seth Curry’s contract is. He is the current league leader in 3-point percentage, and he’s getting paid like a seventh or eighth man. He’s flawed, sure, but on a dollar-per-value basis, Curry is off the charts.
Other 3-point specialists who compare somewhat similarly to Curry’s output, like Joe Harris or Luke Kennard, are being paid over twice as much. If Curry had hit the free agent market last summer, one would guess that he’d have gotten somewhere in the $13-15 million range.
And Curry, like Milton, is also signed for another two years.
5. Matisse Thybulle - $2.7 million
I am by no means the leader of the Matisse Thybulle bandwagon, but in terms of on-court value, he’s clearly worth his weight here. There’s no chance that the Sixers could sign someone to a veteran minimum contract who could make the type of defensive contributions that Thybulle does.
I’m still unsure of where his ultimate value lies -- it’s possible that he once again gets nudged out of the rotation in the playoffs, as he may be one of the very worst offensive wings in the league -- but I feel very comfortable saying that he’s worth more than this current deal, which is more than I can say about everyone else.
6. Ben Simmons - $29.2 million
We are now entering the point in the list where it feels debatable as to whether or not a player is worth their salary -- it’s reasonable to have a discussion as to whether or not Simmons is properly paid. Simmons is worth this type of deal in my mind, but it’s a valid argument to say that a player who refuses to shoot jump shots isn’t worthy of a max deal.
That said, here are a few players currently earning almost the exact same salary as Simmons: Kevin Love, Andrew Wiggins, Kristaps Porzingis, Andre Drummond, and D’Angelo Russell. If Simmons isn’t quite worth this dollar value, he’s at least not an albatross like many of the ones listed there.
It’s perhaps as simple as this: if Simmons were to hit the free agency market next summer, I have little to no doubt that he would get a max contract somewhere. He’s at least better than a handful of players making the same amount of money. Value per dollar, Simmons’ deal is still palatable.
7. Dwight Howard - $2.5 million
Dwight has had an up and down year, and his performance has prompted some discussion (on my part, at least) as to whether or not the Sixers should look into acquiring another backup center. That said, he’s on a minimum contract, and for someone making the least amount of money possible, Dwight has met expectations.
8. Tyrese Maxey - $2.2 million
Alright, this feels like the point on the list where the exact 1:1, on-court value to market value ratio exists. Maxey is on a rookie salary and playing very much like a rookie, looking competent one night and unplayable the next. There’s very little doubt that he’ll grow into being more than worth this salary, but for the time being, I’d say Maxey is being paid just about the perfect amount.
9. Tobias Harris - $33.5 million
I am happy to dump all of the superlatives on Tobias Harris for his performance this season, and eat all of the crow for my past criticisms of him. He is still not worth this contract, though perhaps the strongest compliment I can give is that he’s the closest to being properly paid of any of the remaining players on the list.
Statistically, Harris compares similarly (though favorably) to players like Bojan Bogdanovic, Danilo Galinari, Terry Rozier, and Tim Hardaway, Jr., who are all making 50-70 percent of Harris’ salary.
10. Danny Green - $15 million
Green is by no means an albatross contract, but there’s a whole heap of players making just under his salary who are considerably better: Marcus Smart, Will Barton, Malik Beasley, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, and so on.
The point being, you can acquire some real difference makers for $15 million, and Green is more of a glue guy at this stage in his career. There’s a chance that Green could even see decreased playing time in the playoffs.
At this stage in his career, I’d say Green is worth around 60 percent of this deal, putting him just behind Harris.
11. Isaiah Joe - $800k
I thought about putting Joe higher up, since he’s absolutely worth this deal, but then again, any NBA player is worth this deal. Joe still isn’t going to play any meaningful minutes when it counts, so I couldn’t put him ahead of Harris or Green.
12. Mike Scott - $5 million
Scott can hardly find his way to the floor this season. He’s been injured basically all year, and has been mediocre when he has played. Even last season, Scott looked more or less flat. There’s a chance that this is just the end of the line for his career.
13. Tony Bradley - $3.5 million
Bradley is barely playable, which puts him ahead of the rest of the guys on this list.
T-14. Vincent Poirier and Terrance Ferguson
Both are unplayable, so I’ve decided to give them a tie for last place.