Five Leftover Takes About The Sixers Offseason
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All offseason long, I have basically done nothing but yell at the Sixers for how pathetic they are. As Spike termed it, this has been my Summer of Grumpiness. In my defense, they completely and totally deserve it.
But now that I have essentially run out of ways to yell at them, I figured it would be a good time to finally get to some actual takes about the basketball team. I still reserve the right to shift back into Festivus Frank Costanza mode, but for now, I’ll try to shift back into actual basketball discussion.
Pascal Siakam is the wrong comparison for Paul Reed, but there’s plenty of untapped upside there
About a month ago, Paul Reed mentioned that in his conversations with Nick Nurse, Nurse has expressed a desire to turn him into a “Pascal Siakam-type player.” While I find the Siakam comparison to be off-base, I do think that there’s plenty of intrigue for Reed heading into his fourth season, with a coach who finally is willing to experiment with him as a Power Forward.
Paul Reed says Nick Nurse and the Sixers want to mold him into a ‘Pascal Siakam-type player’
“He talked about molding me into a Pascal Siakam-type player. Somebody who can kind of do it all. Shoot the ball, drive, pass, but right it’s all about focusing on my shot mechanics.… pic.twitter.com/QDPzsfGTfe— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) July 25, 2023
Siakam is much more of a perimeter-based player than Reed will ever be; he likes to isolate from all the way out to the three-point line, and has taken as many as six 3s per game in a season. Neither of those things will ever be in Reed’s game.
I think that a more reasonable upside comparison for Reed would be a new-age Kenneth Faried. Faried was a similarly elite rebounder (his peak rebounding numbers are almost identical to Reed’s on a per-possession basis), and unlike Siakam, did most of his scoring without having any plays called for him.
Reed has a bit more size than Faried, which makes him able to straddle between the four and the five better than Faried ever did. But their strengths (motor, rebounding, scoring without receiving play-calls, switchability on defense) and weaknesses (lapses in defensive awareness, fouling too much, overindulging in their offensive bags) line up quite closely.
The other encouraging aspect of Reed playing more of the four is the fact that lineups with Embiid and another physically gifted, high-motor big have generally fared quite well historically. Here are just a few examples, with data courtesy of Cleaning The Glass.
Embiid and Richaun Holmes, 2017-18: 188 possessions, +21.9 net rating
Embiid and Jonah Bolden, 2018-19: 311 possessions, +14.5 net rating
This list could be expanded to include players like Mike Muscala or Ersan Ilyasova, who also fared extremely well next to Embiid, but I figured that the shooting ability of those two players made them a bit of an unfair comparison for Reed. Same goes for Al Horford. One could also point to the Embiid-Ben Simmons combination’s ability to produce high net rating in the regular season, but Simmons, for other reasons, isn’t exactly a fair comparison for Reed.
The point being, given Reed’s trajectory, skill set, and the history of Embiid playing alongside players like him, I’m all in on Reed making a leap and playing considerable minutes at the four – I just don’t think it will look anything like Pascal Siakam.
Projecting a post-Harden trade roster
In the event that Harden is eventually traded to the Clippers for a package centered around Norm Powell, Robert Covington, and Marcus Morris – which I still think is the most likely outcome here – I do find myself being more intrigued by that roster than many others seem to be.
There are many reasons for that, but the biggest one is that Harden is such a singularly limiting player for your defensive ceiling and identity that removing him and inserting Powell, Covington, and Morris completely changes what you can be on that end. Suddenly, you’re able to play much more of a Nick Nurse-type of style, and you can dream about that team being top-five in the league in defense. With Nurse’s scheming, Powell and Covington’s versatility, and leaps from Reed and others, I don’t think a top-five defense would be a crazy expectation at all.
Powell has somehow become underrated in these discussions. He’s averaged close to 20 points per game in each of the last three seasons on very good efficiency, shoots a respectable number of 3s, and brings the type of downhill athletic ability with the ball that they’ve desperately missed in the past few years. He’s excellent at getting to the rim and drawing fouls – on a per 100 possession basis, Powell attempted more free throws (8.7) than Harden (8.4) did last season.
Throw in his defensive versatility, and I’m all in on the idea of him being a valuable cog in between Maxey and Embiid. My belief in Powell is a big part of the reason I’d just like to pull the damn trigger on a Harden trade already. If Powell fits as expected, Maxey takes a leap, and the Reed at the four experiment works out, I could see this team being a 48-50-win team that’s a fun nightly watch and has a puncher’s chance at the conference finals. Why anyone would prefer to hang onto James Harden for dear life instead of that is beyond me.
The lack of non-Harden moves
One of the more subtly confusing aspects of the Sixers’ offseason is the lack of moves outside of whatever is going on with Harden. The fact that they are so intent on keeping him, and are signaling that they believe in the idea of contending once again with Harden on the roster, is that they simply haven’t done anything to bolster the roster around them. If you believe that you are going to contend, at least go all-in. Don’t kidnap Harden just for the fun of it. Try to win!
They haven’t made this year’s version of a De’Anthony Melton trade – a salary plus future picks trade for a solid bench player. They haven’t even used their mid-level exception!
I thought for sure there would at least be a Tobias Harris trade to re-tool the wing rotation on the fly. Instead, nothing. Just Patrick Beverley and Mo Bamba. And, speaking of…
Prepare yourselves for Mo Bamba
I briefly forced myself to watch some Mo Bamba film, and I am sorry to say that he is just unbelievably atrociously awful. I’m not at all convinced that he’s an upgrade over Dewayne Dedmon – yes, it’s that bad.
He’s low motor, low-IQ, has terrible hands, doesn’t rebound, and is less agile than you think he is. He’s a half decent shooter with a big standing reach, and that’s about it. Fortunately, that’s about all you need from your third string center on a minimum contract, but there’s just no hope for him being anything more than that.
An ode to Shake Milton
With all the insanity of this offseason, I never got to pay a proper goodbye to Shake Milton, who is a good dude and a good player who I thoroughly enjoyed watching over the past several years. One of the joys of following an NBA team is getting to see young guys come into the league, find their way, grow up, and get paid. It was great to see Shake come into his own over the past several years, and I’ll miss watching him.
Milton was one of the few sources of good vibes during the 2019-20 season, and his performance against the Clippers was one of my favorite games of this era. I’m happy to see him get paid, and I think there’s still some untapped potential there that he will get to showcase on a team with less of a logjam at guard.
Shake also belongs in the all-time pantheon of Sixers players with the best names, hanging in the rafters next to Speedy Claxton. Good luck to him.