Ben Simmons Watch: Taking Stock Of The Trade Market
Let’s check around the league to see what changes have occurred in the market since the beginning of the season.
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It’s been over six months since the Ben Simmons trade rumors first began swirling, and somehow, some way, no trade has materialized yet. Daryl Morey has been insistent about his desire to wait for the right deal, and he has proven his willingness to do so by letting this saga drag out as long as it has.
Morey’s decision to keep Simmons on the roster through the start of the season was surely motivated in part by the thinking that another team’s circumstances might change over time, and that a better deal could become available than whatever was being offered during the offseason.
We are just six weeks away from the trade deadline, and time is running out for new suitors to emerge. With that in mind, let’s check around the league to see what changes have occurred in the market since the beginning of the season.
The A-listers
Anyone hoping to see Damian Lillard in a Sixers uniform was surely hoping for Portland to have a season from hell, prompting Lillard to request a trade. The former has happened, but the latter has not. Everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong for Portland – they’ve fired their GM, their head coach is clashing with his players, they’ve had several injuries, and the team simply isn’t very good. But for whatever reason, Lillard isn’t jumping ship just yet. A Simmons-Lillard trade happening before the deadline would be a complete and utter shock.
There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement in the rest of the All-NBA tier, either. I had suggested a Kyrie Irving-Ben Simmons trade a few months back, but it looks like Irving will be returning to the Nets, and it’s unclear if they ever had interest in trading him anyway. Zach LaVine was a name many have thrown out as a potential target, but he’s had a wildly successful season with the Bulls and doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.
The only players in this tier who have some remote hope are Jaylen Brown and Bradley Beal. Brown was briefly mentioned as a target months back, but it seemed the Celtics were resolute in their desire to keep him. After a frustrating and disappointing season, it’s possible that their thinking could shift, but it still feels like an outside chance.
Beal, on the other hand, opted not to sign an extension with the Wizards, and later said, “ultimately you have to be selfish at some point.” That was the first time we’ve heard Beal publicly waver in his long term commitment to Washington, and perhaps it signals an openness to be traded. Additionally, it’s important to note that there is a new vaccine mandate coming in D.C. starting January 15 (the same type that has kept Kyrie Irving from playing in New York), and Beal has not been vaccinated. It is possible that some combination of that and his lack of long term faith in the organization could spark Beal’s desire to be traded.
Still, all fronts feel a bit unlikely at the moment. There is no All-NBA player who seems likely to be traded at the deadline this year, which is surely a letdown from what Morey would’ve hoped.
The next best
Below that top tier of players, there are multiple teams whose seasons have not gone as planned, and who could be more likely to get in on the Simmons sweepstakes. The Indiana Pacers, for example, seem to be heading towards a rebuild, and could have interest in facilitating a Simmons deal, even if it’s as a third team. The Sacramento Kings also have had a brutal season and could be in the market for a change. Perhaps most importantly, the value of their top trade chip – De’Aaron Fox – has gone down, and the ability to buy low on him could be a bit more enticing for the Sixers.
The Hawks and Spurs also stand out as potential teams whose interest in a major trade could’ve changed. The Hawks’ defense has been horrendous, and they may be due for a consolidation-type trade given the fact that they have a bit of excess depth at the moment. The Spurs, on the other hand, are once again toiling in mediocrity and could potentially be motivated for a change of direction.
Given the types of teams that generally occupy this tier – middling teams with little long term direction – it wasn’t likely that we’d see a whole lot of change on this front, anyway. The Indianas and Sacramentos of the world are likely to offer just about the same packages now as they would’ve in July and August.
The bottom tier
All along, there was an underlying belief that if all else failed, Simmons could be dealt for some combination of young players and draft picks. Nearly half way through the season, I still believe that to be the case. Minnesota is having a slightly better than expected season, hovering at 8th place in the Western Conference, and could perhaps be even more motivated to dish out picks in a win-now move for Simmons. It is also possible that a team like Cleveland could be more motivated to dish out a fistful of picks for Simmons, given their early season success.
These types of scenarios are far from ideal, but they are the type of deal that should always be available as a last resort.